Passage Bio (Passage Bio) Predictability Rank

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What is Passage Bio Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Passage Bio Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Passage Bio (Passage Bio) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » Passage Bio Inc (NAS:PASG) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

2005 Market Street, 39th Floor, One Commerce Square, Philadelphia, PA, USA, 19103

Website

https://www.passagebio.com

Passage Bio Inc is a genetic medicines company. The company is focused on developing transformative therapies for rare, monogenic CNS disorders. It has pipeline products such as GM1 Gangliosidosis, Frontotemporal dementia, and Krabbe Disease.

Executives

Kathleen Borthwick	officer: SVP, Interim CFO	C/O PASSAGE BIO, INC., 2005 MARKET STREET, 39TH FLOOR, PHILADELPHIA PA 19103
Simona King	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O PASSAGE BIO, INC., 2005 MARKET STREET, 39TH FLOOR, PHILADELPHIA PA 19103
Dolan Sondhi	director	C/O PASSAGE BIO, INC., 2005 MARKET STREET, 39TH FLOOR, PHILADELPHIA PA 19103
Orbimed Advisors Llc	10 percent owner	601 LEXINGTON AVENUE, 54TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Alexandros Fotopoulos	officer: Chief Technical Officer	TWO COMMERCE SQUARE, 2001 MARKET STREET, 28TH FLOOR, PHILADELPHIA PA 19103
Sandip Kapadia	director	450 WEST 15 STREET, SUITE 505, NEW YORK NY 10011
William Chou	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	C/O PASSAGE BIO, INC., 2005 MARKET STREET, 39TH FLOOR, PHILADELPHIA PA 19103
Monika Maria Toernsen	officer: Chief Commercial Officer	ONE COMMERCE SQUARE, 2005 MARKET STREET, 39TH FLOOR, PHILADELPHIA PA 19103
Michael E. Kamarck	director	C/O UNILIFE CORPORATION, 250 CROSS FARM LANE, YORK PA 17406
Mark S Forman	officer: Chief Medical Officer	C/O PASSAGE BIO, INC., 2005 MARKET STREET, 39TH FLOOR, PHILADELPHIA PA 19103
Bruce A Goldsmith	director, officer: CEO and President	C/O PASSAGE BIO, INC., TWO COMMERCE SQ, 2001 MARKET ST, 28TH FL, PHILADELPHIA PA 19103
Orbimed Capital Gp Vii Llc	10 percent owner	601 LEXINGTON AVENUE, 54TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Brian Burkavage	officer: Controller	C/O PASSAGE BIO, INC., ONE COMMERCE SQUARE, 39TH FLOOR, PHILADELPHIA PA 19103
Derrell Porter	director	C/O ATARA BIOTHERAPEUTICS, INC., 611 GATEWAY BLVD. #900, SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO CA 94080
Richard Steven Morris	officer: Chief Financial Officer	397 EAGLEVIEW BOULEVARD, EXTON PA 19341