Ouster (Ouster) Predictability Rank

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What is Ouster Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Ouster Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Ouster (Ouster) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Hardware » Ouster Inc (NYSE:OUST) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

350 Treat Avenue, San Francisco, CA, USA, 94110

Website

https://www.ouster.com

Ouster Inc is a provider of lidar sensors for the automotive, industrial, robotics, and smart infrastructure industries. Ouster's products include high-resolution scanning and solid-state digital lidar sensors, Velodyne Lidar sensors, and software solutions. The company operates in the Americas, Asia and Pacific, Europe, Middle East, and Africa regions.

Executives

Darien Spencer	officer: EVP of Global Operations	P O BOX 1767, 44091 NOBEL DRIVE, FREMONT CA 94538
Megan Chung	officer: General Counsel	C/O OUSTER, INC., 350 TREAT AVENUE, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94110
Mark Weinswig	officer: Chief Financial Officer	EMCORE CORP, 10420 RESEARCH ROAD, SE, ALBUQUERQUE NM 87123
Virginia Boulet	director	909 POYDRAS ST SUITE 3600, NEW ORLEANS LA 70112
Ernest E Maddock	director	LAM RESEARCH, 4650 CUSHING PARKWAY, FREMONT CA 94538
Nathan Dickerman	officer: PRESIDENT OF FIELD OPERATIONS	C/O OUSTER, INC., 350 TREAT AVENUE, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94110
Krishna Kantheti	10 percent owner	C/O OUSTER, INC., 350 TREAT AVENUE, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94110
Charles Angus Pacala	director, officer: President and CEO	C/O OUSTER, INC., 350 TREAT AVENUE, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94110
Mark Frichtl	officer: Chief Technology Officer	C/O OUSTER, INC., 350 TREAT AVENUE, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94110
Tewksbury Ted L Iii	director	C/O INTEGRATED DEVICE TECHNOLOGY, INC., 6024 SILVER CREEK VALLEY ROAD, SAN JOSE CA 95138
Riaz Valani	director	C/O OUSTER, INC., 350 TREAT AVENUE, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94110
Kristin Slanina	director	120 BROADWAY, SUITE 200, SANTA MONICA CA 90401
Anna Brunelle	officer: Chief Financial Officer	TIVO INC., 2160 GOLD STREET, ALVISO CA 95002
Adam Dolinko	officer: SEE REMARKS	OUSTER, INC., 350 TREAT AVENUE, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94110
Shauna Mcintyre	officer: Pres. of Ouster Automotive	150 N. BARTLETT STREET, MEDFORD OR 97501