Otter Tail (Otter Tail) Predictability Rank

View and export this data going back to 1990. Start your Free Trial

What is Otter Tail Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Otter Tail Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Otter Tail Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Otter Tail's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

Otter Tail (Otter Tail) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Utilities » Utilities - Regulated » Otter Tail Corp (NAS:OTTR) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

OT4:Germany

Address

215 South Cascade Street, P.O. Box 496, Fergus Falls, MN, USA, 56538-0496

Website

https://www.ottertail.com

Otter Tail Corp is a U.S. energy company that primarily operates in the electric (produces and sells electricity), manufacturing (fabricates metal components), and plastics segments (pipes for water uses). The company primarily conducts its operations and acquires the majority of its revenue in the U.S. in the states of Minnesota, South Dakota, and North Dakota. The majority of the company's revenue is derived from the Electric segment and commercial customers, although it generates revenue from residential and industrial customers, as well.

Executives

John D Erickson	director, officer: President & CEO	215 S CASCADE ST, FERGUS FALLS MN 56537
Mary E Ludford	director	215 S CASCADE STREET, FERGUS FALLS MN 56537
Jeanne H Crain	director	215 S CASCADE STREET, FERGUS FALLS MN 56537
Michael E Lebeau	director	215 S CASCADE STREET, FERGUS FALLS MN 56537
Timothy J O'keefe	director	215 S CASCADE ST, FERGUS FALLS MN 56537-2801
John S Abbott	officer: Pres Varistar, Sr VP, M/I Plat	215 S CASCADE ST, FERGUS FALLS MN 56537-2801
Paul L Knutson	officer: VP of Human Resources	215 S CASCADE ST, FERGUS FALLS MN 56537-2801
Kevin G Moug	officer: CFO & Treasurer	215 S CASCADE ST, FERGUS FALLS MN 56537
Thomas J Webb	director	ONE ENERGY PLAZA, JACKSON MI 49201
Jennifer O. Smestad	officer: VP, Gen Coun & Corp Sec	215 S. CASCADE STREET, FERGUS FALLS MN 56537
George A Koeck	officer: Corp Secretary & Gen Counsel	215 S CASCADE ST, FERGUS FALLS MN 56537
Timothy J Rogelstad	officer: Sr VP, Elect Plat; Pres OTP	215 S CASCADE ST, FERGUS FALLS MN 56537-2801
Steven L Fritze	director	370 WBASHA ST NORTH, ST PAUL MN 55102
Arvid R Liebe	director	215 S CASCADE ST, FERGUS FALLS MN 56537
Kathryn O Johnson	director	215 S CASCADE STREET, FERGUS FALLS MN 56537-2801