Otis Worldwide (Otis Worldwide) Predictability Rank

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What is Otis Worldwide Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Otis Worldwide Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Otis Worldwide (Otis Worldwide) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Industrial Products » Otis Worldwide Corp (NYSE:OTIS) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

OTIS:Mexico 4PG:Germany 4PG:Germany O1TI34:Brazil

Address

One Carrier Place, Farmington, CT, USA, 06032

Website

https://www.otis.com

Otis is the largest global elevator and escalator supplier by revenue with around 18% global market share. In 1854 Otis' founder and namesake Elisha Graves Otis, invented a safety mechanism that prevented elevators from falling if the hoisting cable failed. The company's product and service lifecycle begins with installations of elevator units in new buildings, later selling maintenance services on the units, and eventually replacement of the units after the average 15- to 20-year useful life of an elevator. As the largest global OEM, Otis has amassed an installed base under service that exceeds 2 million elevators. Its business model is similar to that of its closest competitors Kone, Schindler, and TK Elevator.

Executives

Thomas A Bartlett	director	116 HUNTINGTON AVENUE, BOSTON MA 02116
Jill Brannon	director	942 S. SHADY GROVE ROAD, MEMPHIS TN 38120
Tracy A Embree	officer: President, Otis Americas	500 JACKSON STREET, COLUMBUS IN 47201
Viseras Enrique Minarro	officer: President, Otis EMEA	C/O INGERSOLL RAND INC., 525 HARBOUR PLACE DRIVE, SUITE 600, DAVIDSON NC 28036
Fernandez Bernardo Calleja	officer: President, Otis EMEA	1 CARRIER PLACE, FARMINGTON CT 06032
Michael Patrick Ryan	officer: VP, CAO and Controller	10 FARM SPRINGS ROAD, FARMINGTON CT 06032
Sally Loh	officer: President, Otis China	1 CARRIER PLACE, FARMINGTON CT 06032
James F. Cramer	officer: President, Otis Americas	1 CARRIER PLACE, FARMINGTON CT 06032
Nora E. Lafreniere	officer: EVP, Chief GC & Corp. Sec.	ONE CARRIER PLACE, FARMINGTON CT 06032
Montlivault Stephane De	officer: President, Otis Asia Pacific	ONE CARRIER PLACE, FARMINGTON CT 06032
Peiming Zheng	officer: President, Otis China	ONE CARRIER PLACE, FARMINGTON CT 06032
Nelda J Connors	director	BOSTON SCIENTIFIC CORPORATION, 300 BOSTON SCIENTIFIC WAY, MARLBOROUGH MA 01752-1234
Anurag Maheshwari	officer: EVP and CFO	1 CARRIER PLACE, FARMINGTON CT 06032
Rahul Ghai	officer: EVP & Chief Financial Officer	GENERAL ELECTRIC COMPANY, 5 NECCO STREET, BOSTON MA 02210
Abbe Luersman	officer: EVP & CPO	1 CARRIER PLACE, FARMINGTON CT 06032