Overseas Shipholding Group (Overseas Shipholding Group) Predictability Rank

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What is Overseas Shipholding Group Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Overseas Shipholding Group Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Overseas Shipholding Group Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Overseas Shipholding Group (Overseas Shipholding Group) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Energy » Oil & Gas » Overseas Shipholding Group Inc (NYSE:OSG) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

PBT NGL EE SMLP TK TNP DLNG IMPP MMLP BROG TSX:ENB EPD ET WMB OKE KMI MPLX TSX:TRP LNG TRGP

Traded in Other Exchanges

19O:Germany

Address

302 Knights Run Avenue, Tampa, FL, USA, 33602

Website

https://www.osg.com

Overseas Shipholding Group Inc is a tanker company which owns and operates a fleet of oceangoing vessels. It provides energy transportation services, delivering crude oil and petroleum products in the U.S. The company owns and operates a combined fleet of approximately 21 vessels registered in the United States. The company operates in the segment of the U.S. Flag Fleet. Majority of the company's revenue is generated in the form of time charters.

Executives

Samuel H Norton	director, officer: President and CEO	58 NE 44TH STREET, MIAMI FL 33133
Elaine Goodman Luria	director	7421 GLENEAGLES RD, NORFOLK VA 23505
Douglas D Wheat	director, other: Chairman of the Board	C/O HAAS WHEAT & PARTNERS LP, 300 CRESCENT COURT, SUITE 1700, DALLAS TX 75201
Cyrus Capital Partners, L.p.	director, 10 percent owner, other: SEE REMARKS	65 EAST 55 STREET, 35TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Gary Eugene Taylor	director	814 NORTH BEACH BLVD., BAY ST. LOUIS MS 39520
Julie Silcock	director
Anja Manuel	director	C/O OVERSEAS SHIPHOLDING GROUP, INC., 302 KNIGHTS RUN AVENUE, TAMPA FL 33602
Joseph Isaac Kronsberg	director	233 PACIFIC STREET, APT 4G, BROOKLYN NY 11201
Saltchuk Resources, Inc.	10 percent owner	450 ALASKAN WAY SOUTH, SUITE 708, SEATTLE WA 98104
Rebecca K Delaet	director	34 BEACH AVENUE, LARCHMONT NY 10538
Ty Wallach	director	C/O PAULSON & CO INC., 1251 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK NY 10020
Paulson & Co. Inc.	10 percent owner	1133 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, 33RD FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10036
J Patrick Reddy	director
Susan Allan	officer: VP, General Counsel & Corp Sec	302 KNIGHTS RUN AVENUE, SUITE 1200, TAMPA FL 33602
Richard Trueblood	officer: CFO	10812 BULLRUSH TERRACE, LAKEWOOD RANCH FL 34202