OptiNose (OptiNose) Predictability Rank

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What is OptiNose Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

OptiNose Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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OptiNose (OptiNose) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Drug Manufacturers » OptiNose Inc (NAS:OPTN) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

0OP:Germany

Address

1020 Stony Hill Road, Suite 300, Yardley, PA, USA, 19067

Website

https://www.optinose.com

OptiNose Inc is a specialty pharmaceutical company that focuses on the development and commercialization of products for patients treated by ear, nose, and throat, and allergy specialists. Its product includes XHANCE (fluticasone propionate) nasal spray, 93 micrograms (mcg), a therapeutic utilizing its proprietary Exhalation Delivery System (EDS) that delivers a topically-acting corticosteroid for the treatment of chronic rhinosinusitis with nasal polyps. The XHANCE is able to deliver medication to the primary site of inflammation high and deep in the nasal passages in regions not adequately reached by intranasal steroids.

Executives

Marino Michael F Iii	officer: Chief Legal Officer & Corp Sec	C/O NUPATHE, INC., 227 WASHINGTON STREET, SUITE 200, CONSHOHOCKEN PA 19428
Ramy A Mahmoud	officer: President & COO	1020 STONY HILL ROAD, SUITE 300, YARDLEY PA 19067
Peter K Miller	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	C/O INTERNET CAPITAL GROUP, 690 LEE ROAD, SUITE 310, WAYNE PA 19087
Mvm Partners, Llc	10 percent owner	OLD CITY HALL, 45 SCHOOL STREET, BOSTON MA 02108
Michele Janis	officer: Acting Chief Financial Officer	1020 STONY HILL ROAD, YARDLEY PA 19067
Victor M Clavelli	officer: Chief Commercial Officer	1020 STONY HILL ROAD, SUITE 300, YARDLEY PA 19067
Paul Jr. Spence	officer: Chief Commercial Officer	1507 POWNAL DRIVE, YARDLEY PA 19067
Anthony J Krick	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	1020 STONY HILL ROAD, YARDLEY PA 19067
R John Fletcher	director	C/O VYANT BIO, INC., 201 ROUTE 17 NORTH, 2ND FLOOR, RUTHERFORD NJ 07070
Kyle Dempsey	director	OLD CITY HALL, 45 SCHOOL STREET, BOSTON MA 02108
Eric Bednarski	director	OLD CITY HALL, 45 SCHOOL STREET, BOSTON MA 02108
Partners Llp Mvm	10 percent owner	30 ST. GEORGE STREET, LONDON X0 W1S SFH
Keith A. Goldan	officer: Chief Financial Officer	227 WASHINGTON STREET, SUITE 200, CONSHOHOCKEN PA 19428
Joseph C Scodari	director	JOHNSON & JOHNSON, ONE JOHNSON & JOHNSON PLAZA, NEW BRUNSWICK NJ 08933
Tomas J. Heyman	director	C/O AKERO THERAPEUTICS, INC., 170 HARBOR WAY 3RD FLOOR, SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO CA 94080