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OptimizeRx (OptimizeRx) Predictability Rank


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What is OptimizeRx Predictability Rank?

1 (5)

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.


OptimizeRx Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

OptimizeRx Predictability Rank Related Terms

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OptimizeRx (OptimizeRx) Business Description

Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
400 Water Street, Suite 200, Rochester, MI, USA, 48307
OptimizeRx Corp is engaged in the healthcare market in the United States. It provides digital health messaging via electronic health records, providing a direct channel for pharmaceutical companies to communicate with healthcare providers and patients. The cloud-based solution supports patient adherence to medications by providing real-time access to financial assistance, prior authorization, education, and clinical information. Its products offering are Financial Messaging, Brand and Clinical Messaging, Brand Support, and Patient Engagement.
Executives
Marion Odence-ford officer: General Counsel and CCO 400 WATER STREET, SUITE 200, ROCHESTER MI 48307
Theresa Greco officer: Chief Commercial Officer 260 CHARLES STREET, SUITE 302, WALTHAM MA 02153
Doug Besch officer: Chief Product Officer 400 WATER STREET, SUITE 200, ROCHESTER MI 48307
William J Febbo officer: Chief Executive Officer 600 CALIFORNIA ST., 9TH FLOOR, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94108
James Paul Lang director C/O BIOVIE, 2120 COLORADO AVENUE, SUITE 230, SANTA MONICA CA 90404
Stephen L Silvestro officer: Chief Commercial Officer 400 WATER STREET, SUITE 200, ROCHESTER MI 48307
Ellen O'connor Vos director C/O NTELOS HOLDINGS CORP., 1154 SHENANDOAH VILLAGE DRIVE, WAYNESBORO VA 22980
Edward Stelmakh officer: COO and CFO 400 WATER STREET, SUITE 200, ROCHESTER MI 48307
Miriam J Paramore officer: President 400 WATER STREET, SUITE 200, ROCHESTER MI 48307
Patrick D Spangler director, officer: SVP of Product & Strategy 14405 21ST AVENUE NORTH, MINNEAPOLIS MN 55447
Douglas P Baker officer: Chief Financial Officer 400 WATER STREET, SUITE 200, ROCHESTER MI 48307
Todd Inman officer: Chief Technology Officer 400 WATER STREET, SUITE 200, ROCHESTER MI 48307
Gregory D Wasson director 200 WILMOT ROAD, DEERFIELD IL 60015
Gus D Halas director 38 PHEASANT RUN PLACE, DANVILLE CA 94506
Awm Investment Company, Inc. 10 percent owner 527 MADISON AVENUE, SUITE 2600, NEW YORK NY 10022