Odyssey Marine Exploration (Odyssey Marine Exploration) Predictability Rank

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What is Odyssey Marine Exploration Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Odyssey Marine Exploration Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Odyssey Marine Exploration (Odyssey Marine Exploration) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Business Services » Odyssey Marine Exploration Inc (NAS:OMEX) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

OYM1:Germany

Address

205 South Hoover Boulevard, Suite 210, Tampa, FL, USA, 33609

Website

https://www.odysseymarine.com

Odyssey Marine Exploration Inc is a deep-ocean exploration company. It is engaged in the discovery, validation, and development of subsea mineral deposits in a socially and environmentally responsible manner. The company works with governments worldwide to identify mineral resources in Exclusive Economic Zones, focusing on phosphorite (fertilizer) and polymetallic nodule (battery metals) projects.

Executives

John Abbott	director	101 20TH ST, APT 2706, MIAMI FL 33139
Laura Lionetti Barton	officer: EVP, Secretary, Corp Comm	5215 WEST LAUREL STREET, TAMPA FL 33607
Mark B Justh	director	5215 WEST LAUREL STREET, TAMPA FL 33607
Christopher Emlyn Jones	officer: Chief Financial Officer	205 S HOOVER BLVD STE 210, #210, TAMPA FL 33609
Fourworld Capital Management Llc	10 percent owner	7 WORLD TRADE CENTER, FL. 46, NEW YORK NY 10007
John Addis	10 percent owner	7 WORLD TRADE CENTER, FLOOR 46, NEW YORK NY 10007
Todd E Siegel	director	2003 GANDY BLVD. NORTH, SUITE 800, ST. PETERSBURG FL 33702
Longley John D Jr	officer: Chief Operating Officer	5215 WEST LAUREL STREET, TAMPA FL 33607
Jon D Sawyer	director	29491 CAMELBACK DRIVE, EVERGREEN CO 80439
James S Pignatelli	director	2300 E SLINGSHOT WAY, KAMAS UT 84036
Mark Gordon	director, officer: CEO and President	5215 WEST LAUREL STREET, TAMPA FL 33607
Jay Nudi	officer: CFO/Treasurer	5215 WEST LAUREL STREET, TAMPA FL 33607
David J Saul	director	18 DEVONSHIRE BAY ROAD, DEVONSHIRE D0 DV07
Philip S Devine	officer: Chief Financial Officer	5215 WEST LAUREL STREET, TAMPA FL 33607
Michael J Holmes	officer: Chief Financial Officer	5215 W LAUREL ST, TAMPA FL 33607