One Liberty Properties (One Liberty Properties) Predictability Rank

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What is One Liberty Properties Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

One Liberty Properties Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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One Liberty Properties (One Liberty Properties) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Real Estate » REITs » One Liberty Properties Inc (NYSE:OLP) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

O1A:Germany

Address

60 Cutter Mill Road, Suite 303, Great Neck, NY, USA, 11021

Website

https://www.1liberty.com

One Liberty Properties Inc is a self-administered and self-managed real estate investment trust. It acquires, owns, and manages a geographically diversified portfolio of industrial, retail, restaurant, health and fitness, and theater properties. The group generates the majority of its revenue in the form of rental income.

Executives

Justin Clair	officer: Assistant Vice President	60 CUTTER MILL ROAD, SUITE 303, GREAT NECK NY 11021
Lawrence Ricketts	officer: VICE PRESIDENT
Charles Biederman	director	60CUTTER MILL ROAD, SUITE 303, GREAT NECK NY 11021
Mili Mathew	officer: Vice President - Financial	60 CUTTER MILL ROAD, SUITE 303, GREAT NECK NY 11021
Jeffrey Gould	director, officer: SENIOR VICE PRESIDENT
Edward Gellert	director	399 PARK AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10022
Eugene I Zuriff	director	C/O SMITH WOLLENSKY RESTAURANT GROUP INC, 1114 FIRST AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10021
Matthew J Gould	director, officer: SENIOR VICE PRESIDENT
Mizuho Securities Usa Llc	other: See Remarks	1271 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, FLOORS - 2,3,4,18,19, NEW YORK NY 10020
Karen A. Till	director	3939 HICKORY STREET, SEAFORD NY 11783
Jesse Robert Lovejoy	director	RIPPLEWOOD HOLDINGS LLC, ONE ROCKEFELLER PLAZA, 32ND FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10020
Benjamin Bolanos	officer: Vice President	60 CUTTER MILL ROAD, SUITE 303, GREAT NECK NY 11021
Leor Siri	director	560 CHURCH AVENUE, WOODMERE NY 11598
Gould Investors L P	10 percent owner	60 CUTTER MILL RD, STE 303, GREAT NECK NY 11021-3190
Fredric H Gould	director, officer: Chariman of Board	60 CUTTER MILL ROAD, SUITE 303, GREAT NECK NY 11021