What is Orbital Infrastructure Group Predictability Rank?
1 (5)
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Orbital Infrastructure Group Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Orbital Infrastructure Group (Orbital Infrastructure Group) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
5444 Westheimer Road, Suite 1650, Houston, TX, USA, 77056
Orbital Infrastructure Group Inc is a diversified infrastructure services platform, providing engineering, design, construction, and maintenance services to customers in three operating segments namely electric power, telecommunications, and renewables.
Executives
| Steve Cochennet |
director |
4500 GREENWICH PLACE, AMARILLO TX 79119 |
| James F Oneil |
director |
C/O FIRSTENERGY CORP., 76 SOUTH MAIN STREET, AKRON OH 44308 |
| Nicholas M Grindstaff |
officer: Chief Financial Officer |
QUANTA SERVICES, INC., 2800 POST OAK BLVD., SUITE 2600, HOUSTON TX 77056-6175 |
| La Doris Harris |
officer: CDO and CEO OSS |
ORBITAL ENERGY GROUP, INC., 1924 ALDINE WESTERN, HOUSTON TX 77038-1204 |
| Jerry Sue Thornton |
director |
C/O BARNES & NOBLE EDUCATION, INC., 120 MOUNTAIN VIEW BLVD, BASKING RIDGE NJ 07920 |
| Laforrest V Williams |
director |
1924 ALDINE WESTERN, HOUSTON TX 77038-1204 |
| Paul T Addison |
director |
C/O FIRSTENERGY CORP., 76 S. MAIN ST., AKRON OH 44308 |
| Daniel Ned Ford |
officer: Chief Financial Officer |
20050 SW 112TH AVENUE, TUALATIN OR 97062 |
| William J Clough |
director, officer: President/CEO |
200 9TH AVENUE NORTH, SUITE 210, SAFETY HARBOR FL 34695 |
| Sarah Tucker |
director |
1707 1/2 POST OAK BLVD, HOUSTON TX 77056 |
| Paul Dwayne White |
director |
3271 SWEET DR, LAFAYETTE CA 94549 |
| Matthew Murdock Mckenzie |
director, officer: Corporate Secretary |
13120 SW BEDFORD ST, TIGARD OR 97224 |
| Sean P Rooney |
director |
20050 SW 112 AVENUE, TUALATIN OR 97062 |
| Thomas A Price |
director |
601 BRANNAN STREET, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94107 |
| Joseph A Mills |
director |
EAGLE ROCK ENERGY PARTNERS, L.P., P.O. BOX 2968, HOUSTON TX 77252-2968 |
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