ONE Gas (ONE Gas) Predictability Rank

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What is ONE Gas Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

ONE Gas Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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ONE Gas (ONE Gas) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Utilities » Utilities - Regulated » ONE Gas Inc (NYSE:OGS) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

OG9:Germany

Address

15 East Fifth Street, Tulsa, OK, USA, 74103

Website

https://www.onegas.com

ONE Gas Inc is a regulated natural gas utility company. It is involved in the distribution and sale of natural gas to residential, commercial, industrial, and transportation consumers through its network of pipelines and service lines. Almost all of the company's revenue is derived from natural gas sales in the states of Oklahoma, Kansas, and Texas. The company controls considerable market shares in Oklahoma and Kansas and is one of the largest natural gas utilities in the U.S.

Executives

Angela Kouplen	officer: See Remarks	2425 SOUTH YUKON, TULSA OK 74107
Deborah Hersman	director	801 E. 86TH AVENUE, MERRILLVILLE IN 46410
Michael G Hutchinson	director	9540 SOUTH MAROON CIRCLE, SUITE 200, ENGLEWOOD CO 80112
Brian F. Brumfield	officer: See remarks	15 EAST 5TH ST., 34TH FLOOR, TULSA OK 74103
Eduardo A Rodriguez	director	100 WEST FIFTH STREET, TULSA OK 74103
William Kent Shortridge	officer: See Remarks	15 E. 5TH STREET, 34TH FLOOR, TULSA OK 74103
Tracy E Hart	director	15 EAST 5TH STREET, TULSA OK 74103
Jeffrey J Husen	officer: See Remarks	15 EAST 5TH ST., TULSA OK 74103
John William Gibson	director	100 WEST FIFTH STREET, TULSA OK 74103
Arcilia Acosta	director	LEGACYTEXAS FINANCIAL GROUP, INC., 5851 LEGACY CIRCLE, PLANO TX 75024
Robert B Evans	director	100 COLLEGE STREET, MINDEN LA 71055
Douglas H Yaeger	director
Pattye L Moore	director	100 WEST FIFTH STREET, TULSA OK 74103
Mark A. Bender	officer: See Remarks	15 EAST 5TH ST., 34TH FLOOR, TULSA OK 74103
Caron A Lawhorn	officer: See Remarks	100 WEST FIFTH STREET, TULSA OK 74103