Oragenics (Oragenics) Predictability Rank

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What is Oragenics Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Oragenics Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Oragenics (Oragenics) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » Oragenics Inc (AMEX:OGEN) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

0A64:UK

Address

4902 Eisenhower Boulevard, Suite 125, Tampa, FL, USA, 33634

Website

https://www.oragenics.com

Oragenics Inc is engaged in research and the development of potential therapies to fight infectious diseases including coronaviruses and multidrug-resistant organisms. Its product (NT-CoV2-1) is an intranasal vaccine candidate to prevent coronavirus disease ("COVID-19") from the SARS-CoV-2 virus and variants thereof. Its focus on developing vaccines and novel antibiotics It is also developing a Terra CoV-2 immunization product candidate to combat the novel coronavirus.

Executives

Fred Telling	director	501 ELLIOTT AVE. W., SUITE 400, SEATTLE WA 98119
John P Gandolfo	director	62 TERRACE ROAD, WAYNE NJ 07470
Cassidy Bruce A. Sr.	director	C/O LOOP MEDIA, 700 N CENTRAL AVENUE, SUITE 430, GLENDALE CA 91203
Janet Huffman	officer: CFO, Secretary and Treasurer	5317 FRUITVILLE RD SUITE 6, SARASOTA FL 34232
Robert C Koski	director, 10 percent owner	1500 W UNIVERSITY PARKWAY, SARASOTA FL 34243
Michael O'keefe Sullivan	officer: CFO, Secretary and Treasurer	3000 BAYPORT DRIVE, SUITE 685, TAMPA FL 33607
Joseph Hernandez	10 percent owner	C/O MICROLIN BIO, INC., NEW YORK NY 10022
Kimberly M Murphy	director	101 EAST KENNEDY BLVD., SUITE 2800, TAMPA FL 33602
Koski Family Lp	10 percent owner	1500 W UNIVERSITY PARKWAY, SARASOTA FL 34243
Randal J Kirk	10 percent owner	1881 GROVE AVENUE, RADFORD VA 24141
Alan Joslyn	director, officer: CEO and President	39 OLD RIDGEBURY ROAD, DANBURY CT 06810
Charles L Pope	director	4902 EISENHOWER BOULEVARD, TAMPA FL 33634
Christine L Koski	director, 10 percent owner	1500 WEST UNIVERSITY PARKWAY, SARASOTA FL 34243
Beverly Koski	10 percent owner
Thomas L Koski	10 percent owner