What is Orthofix Medical Predictability Rank?
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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Orthofix Medical Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Orthofix Medical (Orthofix Medical) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
3451 Plano Parkway, Lewisville, TX, USA, 75056
Orthofix Medical Inc. is a medical device company delivering orthopedic and spine solutions to healthcare providers. The company has two main segments: global spine, including bone growth and healing therapies, spinal implants, and regenerative tissue products; and global orthopedics, providing products used in fracture repair, deformity correction, and bone reconstruction procedures. The majority of the company's sales come from the global spine segment in the United States. Orthofix distributes its products throughout North America, Europe, and several countries globally. The company provides solutions to hospitals, physicians, other healthcare providers, and patients.
Executives
| James F. Hinrichs |
director |
3750 TORREY VIEW COURT, SAN DIEGO CA 92130 |
| Puja Leekha |
officer: CECO & Interim CLO |
3451 PLANO PARKWAY, LEWISVILLE TX 75056 |
| Geoffrey C Gillespie |
officer: VP, Controller, Interim CFO |
3451 PLANO PARKWAY, LEWISVILLE TX 75056 |
| Kevin J. Kenny |
officer: President of Global Spine |
C/O CARDIOVASCULAR SYSTEMS, INC., 1225 OLD HIGHWAY 8 NW, ST. PAUL MN 55112 |
| Shweta Maniar |
director |
C/O SEASPINE HOLDINGS CORP, 5770 ARMADA DRIVE, CARLSBAD CA 92008 |
| Stuart Essig |
director |
311 C ENTERPRISE DRIVE, PLAINSBORO NJ 08536 |
| John J. Bostjancic |
officer: CFO |
C/O SEASPINE HOLDINGS CORPORATION, 2302 LA MIRADA DRIVE, VISTA CA 92081 |
| Keith Valentine |
director, officer: President & CEO |
7475 LUSK BLVD., SAN DIEGO CA 92121 |
| Henneman John B Iii |
director |
311 C ENTERPRISE DRIVE, PLAINSBORO NJ 08536 |
| Patrick L Keran |
officer: Chief Legal Officer |
6725 MESA RIDGE RD., SUITE 100, SAN DIEGO CA 92121 |
| Thomas A. West |
director |
C/O INTERSECT, INC., 1555 ADAMS DRIVE, MENLO PARK CA 94025 |
| Michael E Paolucci |
director |
7475 LUSK BLVD., SAN DIEGO CA 92121 |
| Catherine M Burzik |
director |
|
| Rice Doug |
officer: CFO |
3451 PLANO PARKWAY, LEWISVILLE TX 75056 |
| Kimberley A. Elting |
officer: Chief Legal Officer |
3451 PLANO PARKWAY, LEWISVILLE TX 75056 |
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