NEXTracker (NEXTracker) Predictability Rank

View and export this data going back to 2023. Start your Free Trial

What is NEXTracker Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

NEXTracker Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

NEXTracker Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of NEXTracker's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

NEXTracker (NEXTracker) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Semiconductors » NEXTracker Inc (NAS:NXT) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

6200 Paseo Padre Parkway, Fremont, CA, USA, 94555

Website

https://www.nextracker.com

NEXTracker Inc provides integrated solar tracker and software solutions used in utility-scale and ground-mounted distributed solar generation projects worldwide. Nextracker's products enable solar panels in utility-scale power plants to follow the sun's movement across the sky and optimize plant performance. It generates revenue from selling solar trackers, such as NX Horizon and NX Gemini, and from licensing TrueCapture software products.

Executives

Daniel S Shugar	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	3939 NORTH FIRST STREET, SAN JOSE CA 95134
Leah Schlesinger	officer: GC, Ch Eth & Compl Off'r & Sec	6200 PASEO PADRE PARKWAY, FREMONT CA 94555
William D Watkins	director	P O BOX 8, SAINT PETERS MO 63376
Charles D Boynton	director
Flex Ltd.	10 percent owner	2 CHANGI SOUTH LANE, SINGAPORE U0 486123
Tpg Gp A, Llc	10 percent owner	301 COMMERCE STREET, SUITE 3300, FORT WORTH TX 76102
Kyra Lynn Whitten	director	17465 RINGEL DRIVE, MORGAN HILL CA 95037
Brandi Elizabeth Thomas	director	C/O NEXTRACKER HQ, 6200 PASEO PADRE PKWY, FREMONT CA 94555
Howard Wenger	officer: President	3939 NORTH FIRST STREET, SAN JOSE CA 95134
Nicholas Marco Miller	officer: Chief Operating Officer	6200 PASEO PADRE PARKWAY, FREMONT CA 94555
Bruce Ledesma	officer: Pres, Strat'y, Software & Admn	3939 NORTH FIRST STREET, SAN JOSE CA 95134
David P Bennett	officer: Chief Financial Officer	3616 NICOLE AVE, PLEASANTON CA 94588
Willy C Shih	director	343 STATE STREET, ROCHESTER NY 146500211
Michael P Hartung	director	6201 AMERICA CENTER DRIVE, SAN JOSE CA 95002
Steven B. Mandel	director	301 COMMERCE STREET, SUITE 3300, FORT WORTH TX 76102