NexGel (NexGel) Predictability Rank

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What is NexGel Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

NexGel Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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NexGel (NexGel) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Medical Devices & Instruments » NexGel Inc (NAS:NXGL) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

2150 Cabot Boulevard West, Suite B, Langhorne, PA, USA, 19047

Website

https://www.nexgel.com

NexGel Inc manufactures high water content, electron beam cross-linked, aqueous polymer hydrogels, or gels, used for wound care, medical diagnostics, transdermal drug delivery, and cosmetics. The company specializes in custom gels by capitalizing on proprietary manufacturing technologies. The gels and consumer products are manufactured using proprietary and non-proprietary mixing, coating, and cross-linking technologies. The company recognizes revenue from contract manufacturing.

Executives

Steven Mark Glassman	director	99 LEWIS POINT ROAD, FAIR HAVEN NJ 07704
Nachum Stein	director	QUADRAX CORP, 618 MAIN ST PO BOX 1001, WEST WARWICK RI 02893
Scott Robert Henry	director	34A ATLANTIC AVE., COHASSET MA 02025
David Stefansky	director	850 THIRD AVENUE, SUITE 1801, NEW YORK NY 10022
Jerome B Zeldis	director	8767 E. VIA DE VENTURA, SUITE 190, SCOTTSDALE AZ 85258
Yaakov Spinrad	director	3450 OAKTON ST, SKOKIE IL 60076
Drapczuk Adam E Iii	officer: Chief Financial Officer	6 OAKMONT TERRACE, EAST WINDSOR NJ 08520
Miranda Jayne Toledano	director	C/O COMPASS THERAPEUTICS, INC., 80 GUEST STREET, SUITE 601, BOSTON MA 02135
Bezalel Partners Llc	10 percent owner	C/O KRIEGER & PRAGER LLP, 39 BROADWAY, STE 920, NEW YORK NY 10006
Adam R. Levy	officer: CEO and President	2 AVENUE OF TWO RIVER SOUTH, RUMSON NJ 07760
David Ian Johnson	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	C/O ALLIQUA, INC., 850 3RD AVENUE, 18TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Adynxx, Inc.	10 percent owner	100 PINE ST., STE. 500, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94111