Nevro (NVRO) Predictability Rank

View and export this data going back to 2014. Start your Free Trial

What is Nevro Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Nevro Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Nevro Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Nevro's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

Nevro (NVRO) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Medical Devices & Instruments » Nevro Corp (NYSE:NVRO) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

1N7:Germany

Address

1800 Bridge Parkway, Redwood City, CA, USA, 94065

Website

https://www.nevro.com

Nevro Corp is a medical device company. Its key product is the HFX spinal cord stimulation (SCS) platform, which includes the Senza SCS system, an evidence-based neuromodulation system for the treatment of chronic pain. Senza generates electrical impulses to relieve pain. The system is implanted by physicians and controlled by patients. It consists of leads, a trial stimulator, an implantable pulse generator, surgical tools, a clinician laptop programmer, a patient remote control, and a mobile charger. The company generates the majority of its revenue in the United States.

Executives

Greg Siller	officer: Chief Commercial Officer	C/O NEVRO CORP., 1800 BRIDGE PARKWAY, REDWOOD CITY CA 94065
Shawn Mccormick	director	9600-54TH AVENUE NORTH, SUITE 100, PLYMOUTH MN 55441
Kevin R Thornal	officer: President & CEO	250 CAMPUS DRIVE, MARLBOROUGH MA 01752
Sridhar Kosaraju	director	1351 HARBOR BAY PARKWAY, ALAMEDA CA 94502
Elizabeth H Weatherman	director	C/O WARBURG PINCUS LLC, 450 LEXINGTON AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10017
Richard B. Carter	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	C/O NEVRO CORP., 1800 BRIDGE PARKWAY, REDWOOD CITY CA 94065
Kashif Rashid	officer: General Counsel	C/O NEVRO CORP., 1800 BRIDGE PARKWAY, REDWOOD CITY CA 94065
D Keith Grossman	director, officer: President & CEO
Kevin C Oboyle	director	5964 LA PLACE COURT, CARLSBAD CA 92008
Michael F Demane	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	MEDTRONIC INC, 710 MEDTRONIC PKWY, MS LC310, MINNEAPOLIS MN 55432-5604
Niamh Louise Pellegrini	officer: Chief Commercial Officer	C/O NEVRO CORP., 1800 BRIDGE PARKWAY, REDWOOD CITY CA 94065
Brad Vale	director	C/O NEVRO CORP., 1800 BRIDGE PARKWAY, REDWOOD CITY CA 94065
Susan E Siegel	director	3000 SAND HILL ROAD, BLDG 3 STE 290, MENLO PARK CA 94025
Roderick H. Macleod	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O NEVRO CORP., 1800 BRIDGE PARKWAY, REDWOOD CITY CA 94065
Patrick Schmitz	officer: Vice President, Operations	C/O NEVRO CORP., 1800 BRIDGE PARKWAY, REDWOOD CITY CA 94065