NVOS has been successfully added to your Stock Email Alerts list.
You can manage your stock email alerts here.
NVOS has been removed from your Stock Email Alerts list.
Please enter Portfolio Name for new portfolio.
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks | |
---|---|---|---|
Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
% Out of All 2403 Stocks | 3.3% | 2.9% | 3.7% | 3.3% | 3.3% | 3.7% | 3.3% | 76.3% | 100% |
% that are in Loss (10y) | 3% | 10% | 8% | 9% | 11% | 18% | 16% | 45% | 37% |
Average Gain (10y) | 364.6% | 330.9% | 278.0% | 235.1% | 243.5% | 227.8% | 154.8% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
Median Gain (10y) | 238.5% | 193.5% | 171.0% | 159.0% | 132.5% | 113.5% | 87.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
Maximum Gainer | 2228.0% | 2547.0% | 2452.0% | 2852.0% | 2432.0% | 1892.0% | 1807.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
Maximum Loser | -82.0% | -53.0% | -67.0% | -100.0% | -83.0% | -100.0% | -78.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
Annualized Average Gain | 15.4% | 14.6% | 13.2% | 12.0% | 12.2% | 11.7% | 9.1% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
Annualized Median Gain | 12.1% | 10.6% | 9.8% | 9.3% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 6.0% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of ValuationsThank you for viewing the detailed overview of Novo Integrated Sciences's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.
Sarfaraz Ali | director | C/O NOVO INTEGRATED SCIENCES, INC.,, 11120 NE 2ND STREET, SUITE 100, BELLEVUE WA 98004 |
Robert Letterio Oliva | director | 115 BELFIELD RD, TORONTO A6 L0J 1C0 |
Sterling M. Jimenez | officer: Principal Financial Officer | C/O NOVO INTEGRATED SCIENCES, INC.,, 11120 NE 2ND STREET, SUITE 100, BELLEVUE WA 98004 |
Michael Ross Pope | director | 1045 PROGRESS CIRCLE, LAWRENCEVILLE, GEORGIA GA 30043 |
Alex Flesias | director | 41 LANDMARK COURT, UNIONVILLE A6 L3R 9N7 |
Michael Joseph Gaynor | director | 49 BALMORAL ST, KEMPTVILLE A6 K0G 1J0 |
Robert Mattacchione | director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chief Executive Officer | 79 SELVAPIANO CRES, WOODBRIDGE A6 L4H 0X1 |
Pierre Joseph Dalcourt | director, 10 percent owner | 35 BRYANT ST , BOX 2230, HEARST A6 P0L 1N0 |
Christopher Mehlin David | director, officer: President | 10425 SE 22ND ST., BELLEVUE WA 98004 |
Thomas Edward Bray | officer: Principal Financial Officer | C/O NOVO INTEGRATED SCIENCES, INC., 11120 NE 2ND STREET, SUITE 100, BELLEVUE WA 98004 |
Rebecca Aw Mcdonald | officer: Chief Accounting Officer | 1301 INTERNATIONAL SPEEDWAY BLVD., DELAND FL 32724 |
James Jr Teters | director | 1200 FLIGHTLINE BLVD, STE 5, DELAN FL 32724 |
Phyllis Rouse | officer: secretary | 1200 FLIGHLINE BLVD,, SUITE 5, DELAND FL 32724 |
Jay Hilden | officer: President & CEO | 1200 FLIGHLINE BLVD,, SUITE 5, DELAND FL 32724 |
Robert Adamo | director | 1200 FLIGHTLINE BOULEVARD, SUITE 5, DELAND FL 32724 |
From GuruFocus
By Business Wire • 10-24-2023
By Business Wire • 10-06-2023
By Business Wire Business Wire • 11-30-2022
By Business Wire • 08-15-2023
By Business Wire Business Wire • 12-21-2022
By Business Wire Business Wire • 03-24-2023
By Business Wire Business Wire • 04-27-2023
By Business Wire Business Wire • 08-09-2022
By Business Wire Business Wire • 11-08-2022
By Business Wire • 09-21-2023
Disclaimers: GuruFocus.com is not operated by a broker or a dealer. It has an affiliated registered investment adviser, which serves as the subadviser to an exchange traded fund. This investment adviser does not provide advice to individual investors. Under no circumstances does any information posted on GuruFocus.com represent a recommendation to buy or sell a security. The information on this site, and in its related newsletters, is not intended to be, nor does it constitute investment advice or recommendations. The individuals or entities selected as "gurus" may buy and sell securities before and after any particular article and report and information herein is published, with respect to the securities discussed in any article and report posted herein. Gurus may be added or dropped from the GuruFocus site at any time. In no event shall GuruFocus.com be liable to any member, guest or third party for any damages of any kind arising out of the use of any content or other material published or available on GuruFocus.com, or relating to the use of, or inability to use, GuruFocus.com or any content, including, without limitation, any investment losses, lost profits, lost opportunity, special, incidental, indirect, consequential or punitive damages. Past performance is a poor indicator of future performance. The information on this site, and in its related newsletters, is not intended to be, nor does it constitute investment advice or recommendations. The information on this site is in no way guaranteed for completeness, accuracy or in any other way. The gurus listed in this website are not affiliated with GuruFocus.com, LLC. Stock quotes provided by InterActive Data. Fundamental company data provided by Morningstar, updated daily.