What is Nuzee Predictability Rank?
1 (5)
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Nuzee Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Nuzee (NUZE) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
1350 East Alpha Road, Suite No 230, Richardson, TX, USA, 75074
Nuzee Inc is a coffee and technologies company. The company is a co-packer of single-serve pour-over coffee, coffee brew bags and Dripkits. The company's brand portfolio includes Coffee Blenders, Twin Peaks, Active Cup, Relax Cup, Think Cup, Nude Cup, Pine Ranch Coffee, and Dripkit. Its geographical segments are North America, which accounts for the majority of revenue; and South Korea.
Executives
| Masateru Higashida |
director, 10 percent owner, officer: See Remarks |
10815 RANCHO BERNARDO ROAD, SUITE 250, SAN DIEGO CA 92127 |
| Randell Weaver |
officer: Chief Financial Officer |
|
| Shana Bowman |
officer: See Remarks |
1350 EAST ARAPAHO ROAD, SUITE 230, RICHARDSON TX 75081 |
| Marie Franklin |
officer: See Remarks |
1350 E. ARAPAHO ROAD, SUITE 230, RICHARDSON TX 75081 |
| Patrick J Shearer |
officer: Chief Financial Officer |
1401 CAPITAL AVENUE, SUITE B, PLANO TX 75074 |
| Jose L Ramirez |
officer: See Remarks |
1401 CAPITAL AVENUE, SUITE B, PLANO TX 75074 |
| Tomoko Toyota |
officer: Chief Marketing Officer |
1401 CAPITAL AVENUE, SUITE B, PLANO TX 75074 |
| Tracy Ging |
director |
555 SW 7TH STREET #10, DES MOINES IA 50309 |
| David Robson |
director |
FARMER BROS.CO., 1912 FARMER BROTHERS DR, NORTHLAKE TX 76262 |
| Nobuki Kurita |
director |
TOYOSU 3-4-1-4306, KOTO-KU, TOKYO M0 135-0061 |
| Shanoop Kothari |
officer: SVP and CFO |
2865 SCOTT STREET, SUITE 107, VISTA CA 92081 |
| Kevin J Conner |
director |
110 SOUTH STATE STREET, SUITE 200, NEWTOWN PA 18940 |
| James Chris Jones |
director |
2865 SCOTT STREET, SUITE 107, VISTA CA 92081 |
| Allen S. Morton |
director |
2865 SCOTT STREET, SUITE 107, VISTA CA 92081 |
| Travis Gorney |
officer: President |
2865 SCOTT STREET, SUITE 101, VISTA CA 92081 |
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