Network-1 Technologies (Network-1 Technologies) Predictability Rank

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What is Network-1 Technologies Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Network-1 Technologies Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Network-1 Technologies (Network-1 Technologies) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Business Services » Network-1 Technologies Inc (AMEX:NTIP) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

6LK:Germany

Address

65 Locust Avenue, Suite 912, New Canaan, CT, USA, 06840

Website

https://www.network-1.com

Network-1 Technologies Inc is involved in the business of the development, licensing, and protection of intellectual property rights. The company's current strategy includes continuing to pursue licensing opportunities for its intellectual property assets.

Executives

Robert Michael Mahan	officer: Chief Financial Officer	87 MADISON AVENUE, #433, PARK RIDGE NJ 07656
Steven D. Heinemann	10 percent owner	C/O GOOSE HILL CAPITAL, 546 FIFTH AVENUE, 14TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10036
Jonathan M Greene	officer: Executive Vice President	23 TOPAZ LANE, TRUMBULL CT 06611
Niv Harizman	director	SAWGRASS CORPORATE INDUSTRIAL PARK, 14000 NW 4TH ST, SUNRISE FL 33325
Allison C Hoffman	director	315 EAST 68TH STREET, NEW YORK NY 10065
Emanuel R Pearlman	director	250 EAST 79TH STREET, NEW YORK NY 10075
Hound Partners Offshore Fund, Lp	10 percent owner	C/O HOUND PARTNERS, LLC, 101 PARK AVENUE, 48TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10178
Hound Partners, Llc	10 percent owner	101 PARK AVENUE, 48TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10178
Hound Performance, Llc	10 percent owner	101 PARK AVENUE, 48TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10178
Auerbach Jonathan A G	10 percent owner	215 E 73RD STREET, NEW YORK NY 10021
Laurent Ohana	director	575 LEXINGTON AVENUE, SUITE 400, NEW YORK NY 10022
Woodland Services Corp	10 percent owner
Marilyn Rubenstein	10 percent owner
Jonathan Lieber	10 percent owner	80 CUTTERMILL ROAD STE 311, GREAT NECKK NY 11201
Barry Rubenstein	10 percent owner	68 WHEATLEY RD, BROOKVILLE NY 11545