Netgear (Netgear) Predictability Rank

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What is Netgear Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Netgear Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Netgear (Netgear) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Hardware » Netgear Inc (NAS:NTGR) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

NGJ:Germany

Address

350 East Plumeria Drive, San Jose, CA, USA, 95134

Website

https://www.netgear.com

Netgear Inc is a provider of networking solutions. The reportable segments of the company are connected home, and Small and Medium Businesses (SMB). The Connected Home segment focuses on consumers and consists of high-performance, dependable, and easy-to-use 4G/5G mobile, Wi-Fi internet networking solutions and smart devices such as Orbi Voice smart speakers and Meural digital canvas; and SMB focused on small and medium-sized businesses and consists of business networking, storage, wireless LAN and security solutions that bring enterprise-class functionality to small and medium-sized businesses at an affordable price.

Executives

Andrew Wonki Kim	officer: SVP, Legal and Corp. Dev.	892 RUSSET DR., SUNNYVALE CA 94087
Martin Westhead	officer: CTO	350 E. PLUMERIA DR., SAN JOSE CA 95134
Heidi Cormack	officer: SVP, Marketing	350 E. PLUMERIA DR., SAN JOSE CA 95134
Vikram Mehta	officer: SVP, CBU	350 E. PLUMERIA DR., SAN JOSE CA 95134
Michael A Werdann	officer: SVP of Worldwide Sales	4500 GREAT AMERICAN PARKWAY, C/O NETGEAR INC, SANTA CLARA CA 95054
Laura Durr	director	C/O XPERI HOLDING CORPORATION, 3025 ORCHARD PARKWAY, SAN JOSE CA 95134
Mark G Merrill	officer: Chief Technology Officer
Patrick Cs Lo	director, officer: Chairman and CEO
Shravan Goli	director	1040 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK NY 10016
David John Henry	officer: SVP, Home Networking	350 E. PLUMERIA DR., SAN JOSE CA 95134
Thomas H Waechter	director
Michael F Falcon	officer: SVP, Operations
Tamesa Rogers	officer: SVP, Human Resources	350 EAST PLUMERIA DR, SAN JOSE CA 95134
Murray Bryan	officer: CFO	350 E. PLUMERIA DR., SAN JOSE CA 95134
Gregory J Rossman	director	500 NYALA FARM RD, WESTPORT CT 06880