National Presto Industries (National Presto Industries) Predictability Rank

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What is National Presto Industries Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

National Presto Industries Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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National Presto Industries (National Presto Industries) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Aerospace & Defense » National Presto Industries Inc (NYSE:NPK) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

3925 North Hastings Way, Eau Claire, WI, USA, 54703-3703

Website

https://www.gopresto.com

National Presto Industries Inc has an eclectic product portfolio consisting of household appliances, ammunition, and diapers. The company operates in three segments viz Defense, Housewares/Small Appliance, and Safety. The majority of the revenue is earned from the defense segment which is engaged in manufacturing 40mm ammunition, precision mechanical and electro-mechanical assemblies, and medium caliber cartridge cases; performs Load, Assemble, and Pack (LAP) operations on ordnance-related products for the U.S. Government and prime contractor. While Housewares/Small Appliance segment designs, markets, and distributes housewares and small electrical appliances; the safety segment provides safety technology empowering organizations and individuals to protect what is more important.

Executives

David J Peuse	officer: TREASURER	3925 N HASTINGS WAY, EAU CLAIRE WI 54703
Mackenzie John Roderick Jr	officer: VP-SALES	3925 NORTH HASTINGS WAY, EAU CLAIRE WI 54703
Richard L Jeffers	officer: VP-SALES	3925 N HASTINGS WAY, EAU CLAIRE X1 54703
Patrick J Quinn	director	3925 N HASTINGS WAY, EAU CLAIRE WI 54703
Richard N Cardozo	director	3925 N HASTINGS WAY, EAU CLAIRE WI 54703
Spencer W Ahneman	officer: Vice President	3925 N HASTINGS WAY, EAU CLAIRE WI 54703
Randy F Lieble	director, officer: Vice President, Treasurer, CFO	3925 N HASTINGS WAY, EAU CLAIRE WI 54703
Jeffery Alan Morgan	officer: Vice President-Engineering	3925 N HASTINGS WAY, EAU CLAIRE WI 54703
Douglas J Frederick	officer: General counsel & secretary	3925 N HASTINGS WAY, EAU CLAIRE WI 54703
Joseph G Stienessen	director	3925 N HASTINGS WAY, EAU CLAIRE WI 54703
Maryjo R Cohen	director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chair of Board,President,CEO	3925 N HASTINGS WAY, EAU CLAIRE WI 54703
Donald E Hoeschen	officer: vice president	3925 N HASTINGS WAY, EAU CLAIRE WI 54703
Peterson Terry D Jr	officer: Treasurer/CFO	3925 N HASTINGS WAY, EAU CLAIRE WI 54703
Ian M Kees	officer: General Counsel	3925 N HASTINGS WAY, EAU CLAIRE WI 54703
James F Bartl	director, officer: Sr Vice President/Secretary	3925 NO HASTINGS WAY, EAU CLAIRE WI 54703