Novation (Novation) Predictability Rank

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What is Novation Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Novation Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Novation Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Novation (Novation) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Healthcare Providers & Services » Novation Companies Inc (OTCPK:NOVCQ) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

9229 Ward Parkway, Suite 340, Kansas City, MO, USA, 64114

Website

http://novationcompanies.com

Novation Companies Inc provides outsourced health care staffing and related services in the State of Georgia. Services are performed by medical staff on-site at the company's clients' facilities.

Executives

Lee D Keddie	director	1110 W. LAKE COOK ROAD SUITE 220 BUFFALO GROVE IL 60089
David William Pointer	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	PO BOX 402, NEWMAN LAKE WA 99025
Howard Amster	director	23811 CHAGRIN BLVD # 200, BEACHWOOD OH 44122-5525
Barry Igdaloff	director
Howard Timothy Eriksen	director	567 WILDROSE CIRCLE, LYNDEN WA 98264
Jeffrey E. Eberwein	director, officer: Executive Chairman	53 FOREST AVENUE, SUITE 101, OLD GREENWICH CT 06870
Charles M Gillman	director	1223 WILSHIRE BOULEVARD, OFFICE 648, SANTA MONICA CA 90402
Robert G. Pearse	director	100 CANAL POINTE BLVD., SUITE 108, PRINCETON NJ 08540
Carolyn K. Campbell	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O NOVATION COMPANIES, INC. 500 GRAND BOULEVARD, SUITE 201B KANSAS CITY MO 64106
Richard Rector	other: See Remarks	C/O NOVATION COMPANIES, INC. 500 GRAND BOULEVARD, SUITE 201B KANSAS CITY MO 64106
W Lance Anderson	officer: President and COO	2114 CENTRAL ST STE 600 KANSAS CITY MO 64108
Gregory T Barmore	director	C/O NOVASTAR FINANCIAL INC, 8140 WARD PARKWAY, STE 300, KANSAS CITY MO 64114
Steve M Haslam	officer: Chief Operating Officer	2114 CENTRAL STREET SUITE 600 KANSAS CITY MO 64108
Edward W Mehrer	director	C/O NOVASTAR FINANCIAL INC 8140 WARD PARKWAY, STE 300 KANSAS CITY MO 64114
Art N Burtscher	director	C/O NOVASTAR FINANCIAL INC 8140 WARD PARKWAY, STE 300 KANSAS CITY MO 64114

Novation (Novation) Headlines

From GuruFocus

Novation Companies Announces Date of 2018 Annual Meeting of Shareholders

By PRNewswire PRNewswire • 08-02-2018