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Neumora Therapeutics (Neumora Therapeutics) Predictability Rank


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What is Neumora Therapeutics Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Neumora Therapeutics Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Neumora Therapeutics Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Neumora Therapeutics's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

Neumora Therapeutics (Neumora Therapeutics) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » Neumora Therapeutics Inc (NAS:NMRA) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
ACLX BEAM VCEL RCKT VCYT TGTX SWTX HRMY CBAY IDYA OCSE:NOVO B VRTX REGN ASX:CSL SGEN XKRX:207940 MRNA XBRU:ARGX HKSE:02269 BNTX
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
490 Arsenal Way, Suite 200, Watertown, MA, USA, 02472
Website
https://www.neumoratx.com
Neumora Therapeutics Inc is a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company founded to confront the global brain disease crisis by taking a fundamentally different approach to the way treatments for brain diseases are developed. It has rapidly scaled its therapeutic pipeline, which currently consists of seven clinical and preclinical neuroscience programs that target novel mechanisms of action for a broad range of underserved neuropsychiatric disorders and neurodegenerative diseases. The company expects to continue to progress in the development of its pipeline with the planned initiation of multiple clinical trials across its programs over the next 12 to 18 months, which supports numerous anticipated data readouts.
Executives
Kristina Burow director, 10 percent owner 8755 W. HIGGINS ROAD, SUITE 1025, CHICAGO IL 60631
Arch Venture Partners Xii, Llc 10 percent owner 8755 W HIGGINS ROAD, SUITE 1025, CHICAGO IL 60631
Arch Venture Partners X, Llc 10 percent owner 8755 W. HIGGINS ROAD, SUITE 1025, CHICAGO IL 60631
Henry O Gosebruch director, officer: President & CEO 1 N. WAUKEGAN ROAD, NORTH CHICAGO IL 60064-6092
Arch Venture Fund X, L.p. 10 percent owner 8755 W. HIGGINS ROAD, SUITE 1025, CHICAGO IL 60631
Amgen Inc 10 percent owner ONE AMGEN CENTER DRIVE, THOUSAND OAKS CA 91320
Arch Venture Partners X Overage, L.p. 10 percent owner 8755 W. HIGGINS ROAD, SUITE 1025, CHICAGO IL 60631
Arch Venture Partners Viii, Llc 10 percent owner 8755 W. HIGGINS ROAD, SUITE 1025, CHICAGO IL 60631
Arch Venture Partners X, L.p. 10 percent owner 8755 W. HIGGINS ROAD, SUITE 1025, CHICAGO IL 60631
Daljit Singh Aurora officer: Chief Strategy Officer C/O DERMIRA, INC., 275 MIDDLEFIELD ROAD, SUITE 150, MENLO PARK CA 94025
Arch Venture Fund Xii, L.p. 10 percent owner 8755 W. HIGGINS ROAD, SUITE 1025, CHICAGO IL 60631
Arch Venture Partners Xii, L.p. 10 percent owner 8755 W HIGGINS ROAD, SUITE 1025, CHICAGO IL 60631
Joshua Pinto officer: Chief Financial Officer C/O NEUMORA THERAPEUTICS, INC., 490 ARSENAL WAY, SUITE 200, WATERTOWN MA 02472
Alaa Halawa director C/O NEUMORA THERAPEUTICS, INC., 490 ARSENAL WAY, SUITE 200, WATERTOWN MA 02472
Carol Y. Suh officer: Chief Operating Officer C/O NEUMORA THERAPEUTICS, INC., 490 ARSENAL WAY, SUITE 200, WATERTOWN MA 02472