Nuveen Municipal Credit Opps Fund (Nuveen Municipal Credit Opps Fund) Predictability Rank

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What is Nuveen Municipal Credit Opps Fund Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Nuveen Municipal Credit Opps Fund Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Nuveen Municipal Credit Opps Fund Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Nuveen Municipal Credit Opps Fund (Nuveen Municipal Credit Opps Fund) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Asset Management » Nuveen Municipal Credit Opps Fund (NYSE:NMCO) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

333 West Wacker Drive, Chicago, IL, USA, 60606

Website

https://www.nuveen.com

Nuveen Municipal Credit Opps Fund is a closed-end fund. The fund's objective is to provide a high level of current income exempt from regular U.S. federal income tax and secondarily, total return. It invests in high yielding, low-to medium-quality municipal securities and uses leverage.

Executives

Terence J Toth	other: Chairman of the Board
Bank Of America Corp /de/	10 percent owner	BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATE CENTER, 100 N TRYON ST, CHARLOTTE NC 28255
Banc Of America Preferred Funding Corp	10 percent owner	214 NORTH TRYON STREET, CHARLOTTE NC 28255
Trey Iii Stenersen	officer: Vice President	333 WEST WACKER DRIVE, C/O NUVEEN STE 3400, CHICAGO IL 60606
Brett Black	officer: Chief Compliance Officer	333 WEST WACKER DRIVE, C/O NUVEEN STE 3400, CHICAGO IL 60606
John M. Mccann	officer: Vice President	333 WEST WACKER DRIVE, C/O NUVEEN STE 3400, CHICAGO IL 60606
Lancellotta Amy B.r.	other: Trustee	333 W. WACKER DRIVE, C/O NUVEEN, STE 3400, CHICAGO IL 60606
Joanne Medero	other: Trustee	333 W. WACKER DRIVE, C/O NUVEEN, STE 3400, CHICAGO IL 60606
Matthew Iii Thornton	other: Trustee	3610 HACKS CROSS ROAD, MEMPHIS TN 38125
Deann Morgan	officer: Vice President	TWO WORLD FINANCIAL CENTER, 7TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10281
Jpmorgan Chase Bank, N.a.	10 percent owner	1111 POLARIS PARKWAY, COLUMBUS OH 43240
Jon Scott Meissner	officer: Vice President	333 W WACKER DRIVE, STE 3400, CHICAGO IL 60606
Michael S. Hamilton	other: Portfolio Manager	C/O NUVEEN INVESTMENTS, 333 W. WACKER DRIVE, CHICAGO IL 60606
Jack Evans	other: Trustee	333 W WACKER DRIVE, C/O NUVEEN INVESTMENTS, CHICAGO IL 60606
Judith M Stockdale	other: Trustee	333 W WACKER DRIVE, C/O NUVEEN INVESTMENTS, CHICAGO IL 60606

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