Nielsen Holdings (Nielsen Holdings) Predictability Rank

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What is Nielsen Holdings Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Nielsen Holdings Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Nielsen Holdings (Nielsen Holdings) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Business Services » Nielsen Holdings PLC (NYSE:NLSN) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

675 Avenue of the Americas, New York, NY, USA, 10010

Website

https://www.nielsen.com

Nielsen Holdings PLC operates as a media and content ecosystem provider and offers audience measurement, data and analytics services. The company's data is used by its publishing clients to understand their audiences, establish the value of their advertising inventory, and maximize the value of their content. It operates as a complete unit - from the conception of a product, through the collection of the data, into the technology and operations, all the way to the data being sold and delivered to the client. The company's single reportable segment consists of television, radio, online and mobile audience and advertising measurement and corresponding analytics.

Executives

Windacre Partnership Master Fund, Lp	10 percent owner	2200 POST OAK BLVD., SUITE 1580, HOUSTON TX 77056
Windacre Partnership Llc	10 percent owner	2200 POST OAK BOULEVARD, SUITE 1580, HOUSTON TX 77056
Snehal Amin	10 percent owner	2200 POST OAK BLVD., SUITE 1580, HOU TX 77056
Henry Iglesias	officer: Principal Accounting Officer	TIFFANY & CO., 727 FIFTH AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10022
Stephanie Plaines	director	200 E. RANDOLPH DRIVE, CHICAGO IL 60601
Luca Guerrino De	director	C/O LOGITECH, INC., 6505 KAISER DRIVE, FREMONT CA 94555
Karthik Rao	officer: COO Nielsen Global Media	3200 OLYMPUS BLVD, SUITE 100, DALLAS TX 75019
Jon Miller	director	C/O TRIPADVISOR, INC, 141 NEEDHAM STREET, NEWTON MA 02464
Attwood James A Jr	director	520 MADISON AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10022
David W Kenny	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	VIVAKI, 33 ARCH STREET, BOSTON MA 02110
Thomas H Castro	director	C/O TIME WARNER CABLE INC., 60 COLUMBUS CIRCLE, 16TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10023
Janice Marinelli Mazza	director	4031 LONGRIDGE AVE, SHERMAN OAKS CA 91423
Linda Zukauckas	officer: Chief Financial Officer	200 VESEY STREET, NEW YORK NY 10285
Laurie Lovett	officer: Chief Human Resources Officer	675 6TH AVENUE, 3RD FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10011
Christopher Taft	officer: SVP & Corporate Controller	442 YELLOW BRICK ROAD, ORANGE CT 06477