New Relic (New Relic) Predictability Rank

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What is New Relic Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

New Relic Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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New Relic (New Relic) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Software » New Relic Inc (NYSE:NEWR) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

188 Spear Street, Suite 1000, San Francisco, CA, USA, 94105

Website

https://www.newrelic.com

New Relic Inc is a provider of software analytics solutions for organizations to collect, store, and analyze massive amounts of software data in real-time. The firm's flagship New Relic Software Analytics Cloud is made up of a suite of products, a Big Data database, and an open platform. Its solutions include diagnostics, reporting and alerting, transaction monitoring, and performance monitoring capabilities. The firm generates revenue from subscription-based arrangements for software offerings, typically for a year. A majority of the firm's revenue is generated in the United States, and the rest from Europe, the Middle East, and Africa; the Asia-Pacific; and other regions.

Executives

Thomas J. Lloyd	officer: Chief Legal Officer, Corp Secy	C/O NEW RELIC, INC., 188 SPEAR STREET, SUITE 1000, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94105
Mark Dodds	officer: Chief Revenue Officer	C/O NEW RELIC, INC., 188 SPEAR STREET, SUITE 1000, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94105
William Staples	officer: Chief People Officer	C/O NEW RELIC, INC., 188 SPEAR STREET, STE. 1200, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94105
David Barter	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O MODEL N, INC., 1600 SEAPORT BLVD., SUITE 400, REDWOOD CITY CA 94063
Lewis Cirne	director, officer: CEO	C/O NEW RELIC, INC., 188 SPEAR STREET, STE. 1200, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94105
Kristy Friedrichs	officer: Chief Operating Officer	C/O NEW RELIC, INC., 188 SPEAR STREET, SUITE 1000, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94105
Jana Partners Llc	director, other: See Remarks	767 FIFTH AVENUE, 8TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10153
Radhakrishnan Mahendran	director	C/O NEW RELIC, INC., 188 SPEAR STREET, SUITE 1000, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94105
Mark Sachleben	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O NEW RELIC, INC., 188 SPEAR STREET, STE. 1200, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94105
Steve Hurn	officer: EVP, Worldwide Sales	C/O NEW RELIC, INC., 188 SPEAR STREET, SUITE 1000, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94105
Susan Donner Arthur	director	11000 OPTUM CIRCLE, EDEN PRAIRIE MN 55344
Kevin G. Galligan	director	C/O JANA PARTNERS LLC, 767 FIFTH AVENUE, 8TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10153
Phalachandra Bhat	director	C/O NEW RELIC, INC., 388 SPEAR STREET, SUITE 1000, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94105
Takeshi Numoto	director	C/O NEW RELIC, INC., 188 SPEAR STREET, STE. 1000, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94105
David J Henshall	director	18880 HOMESTEAD ROAD, CUPERTINO CA 95014