NeueHealth (NeueHealth) Predictability Rank

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What is NeueHealth Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

NeueHealth Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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NeueHealth (NeueHealth) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Healthcare Plans » NeueHealth Inc (NYSE:NEUE) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

PFHO MRAI UNH ELV CI CVS HUM CNC MOH SZSE:000503 ALHC BSP:ODPV3 OSCR CLOV BSP:QUAL3 ROCO:6665 MIL:HI TSXV:NXG

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

8000 Norman Center Drive, Suite 900, Minneapolis, MN, USA, 55437

Website

https://www.brighthealthgroup.com

Bright Health Group Inc is a technology-enabled, value-driven healthcare company focused on delivering affordable healthcare to the fast-growing aging and underserved populations in Florida, Texas, and California. It consists of two reportable segments: Bright HealthCare includes delegated senior managed care business that partners with a tight group of aligned providers in California focused on serving aging and underserved populations with unmet clinical needs through a Fully-Aligned Care Model, and Consumer Care includes a value-driven care delivery business that manages risk in partnership with external payors, It aims to significantly reduce the friction and current lack of coordination between payors by delivering on its Fully-Aligned Care Model with multiple payors.

Executives

Mikan George Lawrence Iii	director, officer: CEO and President	200 SW 1ST AVE, SUITE 1600, FORT LAUDERDALE FL 33301
Jay Matushak	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O BRIGHT HEALTH GROUP, INC., 8000 NORMAN CENTER DRIVE, SUITE 900, MINNEAPOLIS MN 55437
Jeffrey S Cook	officer: CEO, NeueHealth	C/O BRIGHT HEALTH GROUP INC, 8000 NORMAN CENTER DRIVE SUITE 1200, MINNEAPOLIS MN 55437
Jeffrey J Scherman	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	C/O BRIGHT HEALTH GROUP, INC., 8000 NORMAN CENTER DRIVE, SUITE 1200, MINNEAPOLIS MN 55437
Cathy R Smith	officer: CFO & CAO	TARGET CORPORATION, 1000 NICOLLET MALL, TPS-3155, MINNEAPOLIS MN 55403
Jeff Michael Craig	officer: GC & CORPORATE SECRETARY	C/O BRIGHT HEALTH GROUP INC, 8000 NORMAN CENTER DRIVE SUITE 1200, MINNEAPOLIS MN 55437
Manuel Kadre	director	2020 SALZEDO STREET, SUITE 301, CORAL GABLES FL 33134
Jeffrey R Immelt	director	GENERAL ELECTRIC COMPANY, 41 FARNSWORTH STREET, BOSTON MA 02210
Nea 18 Vge Gp, Llc	10 percent owner	C/O NEW ENTERPRISE ASSOCIATES, 1954 GREENSPRING DRIVE, SUITE 600, TIMONIUM MD 21093
Nea Partners 18 Vge, L.p.	10 percent owner	C/O NEW ENTERPRISE ASSOCIATES, 1954 GREENSPRING DRIVE, SUITE 600, TIMONIUM MD 21093
Nea 18 Venture Growth Equity, L.p.	10 percent owner	1954 GREENSPRING DRIVE, SUITE 600, TIMONIUM MD 21093
Nea 17 Gp, Llc	10 percent owner	1954 GREENSPRING DRIVE, SUITE 600, TIMONIUM MD 21093
Nea Partners 17, L.p.	10 percent owner	1954 GREENSPRING DRIVE, SUITE 600, TIMONIUM MD 21093
New Enterprise Associates 17, L.p.	10 percent owner	1954 GREENSPRING DRIVE, SUITE 600, TIMONIUM MD 21093
Michael A Carson	officer: CEO, Bright HealthCare	C/O BRIGHT HEALTH GROUP INC., 8000 NORMAN CENTER DRIVE SUITE 1200, MINNEAPOLIS MN 55437