What is Minerva Neurosciences Predictability Rank?
1 (5)
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Minerva Neurosciences Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Minerva Neurosciences (Minerva Neurosciences) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
1500 District Avenue, Burlington, MA, USA, 01803
Minerva Neurosciences Inc is a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company. It primarily focuses on the development and commercialization of a portfolio of product candidates to treat patients suffering from central nervous system diseases. The company's pipeline products include MIN-101, MIN-202, and MIN-301. Targeted disorders include schizophrenia, insomnia, major depressive disorder, and Parkinson's disease. Its product portfolio and potential indications include Roluperidone for the treatment of negative symptoms in patients with schizophrenia; Seltorexant, for the treatment of insomnia disorder and major depressive disorder; MIN-117 for the treatment of MDD; and MIN-301 for the treatment of Parkinson's disease.
Executives
| Ag Boehringer |
10 percent owner |
BINGER STRABE 173, INGELHEIM AM RHEIN 2M 55216 |
| Boehringer Ingelheim International Gmbh |
10 percent owner |
200 PARK AVENUE, C/O KLAUS H JANDER ESQ ROGERS & WELLS LL, NEW YORK NY 10166 |
| Remy Luthringer |
officer: EVP and Head of R&D |
C/O MINERVA NEUROSCIENCES, INC., 1601 TRAPELO ROAD, SUITE 286, WALTHAM MA 02451 |
| Geoff Race |
officer: EVP and CFO |
C/O MINERVA NEUROSCIENCES, 1601 TRAPELO ROAD, SUITE 286, WALTHAM MA 02451 |
| Frederick W Ahlholm |
officer: Chief Accounting Officer |
C/O MINERVA NEUROSCIENCES, INC., 1601 TRAPELO ROAD, SUITE 286, WALTHAM MA 02451 |
| Plc Barclays |
10 percent owner |
1 CHURCHILL PLACE, CANARY WHARF, LONDON X0 E14 5HP |
| David Kupfer |
director |
C/O MINERVA NEUROSCIENCES, INC., 1601 TRAPELO ROAD, SUITE 284, WALTHAM MA 02451 |
| Joseph H. Reilly |
officer: Chief Business Officer |
C/O MINERVA NEUROSCIENCES, 1601 TRAPELO ROAD, SUITE 286, WALTHAM MA 02451 |
| Van Heek G Jan |
director |
ONE KENDALL SQUARE, CAMBRIDGE MA 02139 |
| Richard E. Russell |
officer: President |
C/O MINERVA NEUROSCIENCES, INC., 1601 TRAPELO ROAD, SUITE 284, WALTHAM MA 02451 |
| William F Doyle |
director |
|
| Hans Peter Hasler |
director |
C/O MINERVA NEUROSCIENCES, INC., 1601 TRAPELO ROAD, SUITE 284, WALTHAM MA 02451 |
| Jeryl L Hilleman |
director |
C/O INTERSECT ENT, INC., 1555 ADAMS DRIVE, MENLO PARK CA 94025 |
| Index Venture Associates Iii Ltd |
10 percent owner |
5TH FLOOR, 44 ESPLANADE, ST. HELIER, CHANNEL ISLANDS Y9 JE1 3FG |
| Index Venture Associates Iv Ltd |
10 percent owner |
44 ESPLANADE, ST. HELIER, CHANNEL ISLANDS Y9 JE4 9WG |
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