NeuBase Therapeutics (NeuBase Therapeutics) Predictability Rank

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What is NeuBase Therapeutics Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

NeuBase Therapeutics Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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NeuBase Therapeutics (NeuBase Therapeutics) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » NeuBase Therapeutics Inc (NAS:NBSE) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

O7P:Germany O7P:Germany

Address

350 Technology Drive, Suite 421, Pittsburgh, PA, USA, 15219

Website

https://www.neubasetherapeutics.com

NeuBase Therapeutics Inc is a pre-clinical stage biopharmaceutical company. It is engaged in the development of gene silencing therapies with its synthetic antisense oligonucleotides. Its Patrol platform is focused on the development of drugs for rare genetic diseases such as Huntington's Disease, Myotonic Dystrophy and Familial Parkinson's Disease among others.

Executives

Symetryx Corp	10 percent owner	2828 BATHURST ST #400, TORONTO A6 M6B3A7
Aleta Shiff	10 percent owner	461 LYTTON BLVD., TORONTO A6 M5N 1S5
Barry Shiff	10 percent owner	461 LYTTON BLVD., TORONTO A6 M5N 1S5
William Roland Mann	officer: COO	700 TECHNOLOGY DRIVE, PITTSBURGH PA 15219
Todd P. Branning	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O AMNEAL PHARMACEUTICLAS, INC., 400 CROSSING BOULEVARD, BRIDGEWATER NJ 08807
Eric I Richman	director	C/O REV CAPITAL II, LLC, 9740 SORREL AVE, POTOMAC MD 20854
Eric J Ende	director	C/O MATINAS BIOPHARMA HOLDINGS, INC., 1545 ROUTE 206 SOUTH, SUITE 302, BEDMINSTER NJ 07921
Sandra Rojas-caro	officer: Chief Medical Officer	C/O AEGLEA BIOTHERAPEUTICS, INC., 901 S. MOPAC EXPRESSWAY, STE. 250, AUSTIN TX 78746
Kianoush Motesharei	officer: See Remarks	350 TECHNOLOGY DRIVE, PITTSBURGH PA 15219
Gerald J Mcdougall	director	350 TECHNOLOGY DRIVE, PITTSBURGH PA 15219
Curt Bradshaw	officer: Chief Scientific Officer	177 E COLORADO BLVD, STE 700, PASADENA CA 91105
Gines Diego Miralles	director	2235 VIA FRESCA, LA JOLLA CA 92037
Franklyn G Prendergast	director
Dietrich A Stephan	director, 10 percent owner, officer: President and CEO	213 SMITHFIELD ST, PITTSBURGH PA 15222
Lipizzaner Llc	10 percent owner	1209 ORANGE STREET, WILMINGTON DE 19801