Myomo (MYO) Predictability Rank

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What is Myomo Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Myomo Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Myomo (MYO) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Medical Devices & Instruments » Myomo Inc (AMEX:MYO) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

0M61:Germany 0M61:Germany

Address

137 Portland Street, 4th Floor, Boston, MA, USA, 02114

Website

https://www.myomo.com

Myomo Inc is a wearable medical robotics company that develops, designs, and produces myoelectric orthotics for people with neuromuscular disorders. The MyoPro myoelectric upper limb orthosis product is registered with the Food and Drug Administration as a Class II medical device. The Company provides the device to patients and bills their insurance companies directly, sometimes utilizing the clinical services of orthotics and prosthetics providers for which a fee is paid. The Company sells the product to orthotics and prosthetics providers around the world and the Veterans Health Administration (VA).

Executives

Thomas F Kirk	director
Milton Mayo Morris	director	2121 ALLEN PARKWAY, APT 4075, HOUSTON TX 77019
Paul R Gudonis	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	9 HICKORY ROAD, MANCHESTER MA 01944
David A Henry	officer: Chief Financial Officer
Harry Kovelman	officer: Chief Medical Officer	C/O MYOMO, INC., 137 PORTLAND ST., 4TH FLOOR, BOSTON MA 02114
Yitzchak Jacobovitz	director	MYOMO, INC., 137 PORTLAND ST., 4TH FLOOR, BOSTON MA 02114
Micah Mitchell	officer: Chief Commercial Officer	C/O MYOMO, INC., ONE BROADWAY 14TH FLOOR, CAMBRIDGE MA 02139
Crowley Thomas Aloysius Jr.	director	19 ST CLAIR AV, SPRING LAKE NJ 07762
Cliff Conneighton	officer: Chief Marketing Officer	53 DEPOT ROAD, HOLLS NH 03049
Jonathan Naft	officer: VP, General Manager	C/O MYOMO, INC., ONE BROADWAY, 14TH FLOOR, CAMBRIDGE MA 02142
Brandon M Green	officer: Chief Medical Officer	C/O MYOMO, INC., ONE BROADWAY, 14TH FLOOR, CAMBRIDGE MA 02142
Ralph A Goldwasser	officer: Chief Financial Officer	BNN CORP, 150 CAMBRIDGEPARK DRIVE, CAMBRIDGE MA 02140
Davie Mendelsohn	officer: VP, Sales	C/O MYOMO, INC., ONE BROADWAY, 14TH FLOOR, CAMBRIDGE MA 02142
Steve Sanghi	director	2355 W CHANDLER BLVD, CHANDLER AZ 85224-6199
Amy K. Knapp	director	75 N. MOUNTAIN AVE, MONTCLAIR NJ 07042