Marin Software (Marin Software) Predictability Rank

View and export this data going back to 2013. Start your Free Trial

What is Marin Software Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Marin Software Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Marin Software Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Marin Software's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

Marin Software (Marin Software) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Software » Marin Software Inc (NAS:MRIN) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

2MAA:Germany

Address

845 Market Street, Suite 450, San Francisco, CA, USA, 94103

Website

https://www.marinsoftware.com

Marin Software Inc provides a cloud-based digital advertising management solution for search, display, social and mobile advertising channels to improve financial performance, realize efficiencies and time savings and improve business decisions. The company's enterprise marketing software platform is offered as an integrated software-as-a-service (SaaS) solution for advertisers and agencies. Its software solution is designed to help its customers measure the effectiveness of their advertising campaigns through its reporting and analytics capabilities; manage and execute campaigns through its user interface and underlying technology that streamlines and automates functions. All the business activity of the firm is functioned through the geographical regions of The United States.

Executives

Robert Bertz	officer: CFO	123 MISSION STREET, 27TH FLOOR, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94105
Christopher A. Lien	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	C/O MARIN SOFTWARE INCORPORATED, 123 MISSION STREET, 25TH FLOOR, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94105
Diena Lee Mann	director	C/O MARIN SOFTWARE INC., 123 MISSION ST, 25TH FLOOR, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94105
Brian K Kinion	director	C/O MARKETO INC., 901 MARINERS ISLAND BLVD., SUITE 500, SAN MATEO CA 94404
Donald P. Hutchison	director	C/O MARIN SOFTWARE INCORPORATED, 123 MISSION STREET, 25TH FLOOR, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94104
Wister Walcott	officer: EVP, Products and Platform	C/O MARIN SOFTWARE INCORPORATED, 123 MISSION STREET, 25TH FLOOR, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94105
L Gordon Crovitz	director
Esw Capital, Llc	10 percent owner	401 CONGRESS AVENUE, SUITE 2650, AUSTIN TX 78701
Joseph Liemandt	10 percent owner	5001 PLAZA ON THE LAKE, AUSTIN TX 78746
Yagnesh Patel	officer: VP,InterimPrinFin&AcctgOff	C/O MARIN SOFTWARE INCORPORATED, 123 MISSION STREET, 25TH FLOOR, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94105
Bradley Kinnish	officer: VP Finance, Acting CFO	C/O MARIN SOFTWARE INCORPORATED, 123 MISSION STREET, 25TH FLOOR, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94105
Bruce Dunlevie	director, 10 percent owner	2480 SAND HILL ROAD, SUITE 200, MENLO PARK CA 94025
Catriona M. Fallon	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O MARIN SOFTWARE INCORPORATED, 123 MISSION STREET, 25TH FLOOR, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94105
Jugnu Bhatia	officer: Controller,InterimPrinAcctgOff	C/O MARIN SOFTWARE INCORPORATED, 123 MISSION STREET, 25TH FLOOR, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94105
Parveen Nandal	officer: VP Fin,InterimPrinFinanOff	C/O MARIN SOFTWARE INCORPORATED, 123 MISSION STREET, 25TH FLOOR, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94105