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MRC Global (MRC Global) Predictability Rank


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What is MRC Global Predictability Rank?

1 (5)

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

MRC Global Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

MRC Global Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of MRC Global's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

MRC Global (MRC Global) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Energy » Oil & Gas » MRC Global Inc (NYSE:MRC) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
SLCA DRQ CLB VTOL TTI AESI NR PUMP DNOW OIS SLB HAL BKR MIL:TEN FTI SHSE:601808 NOV WFRD CHX ASX:WOR
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
1301 McKinney Street, Suite 2300, Houston, TX, USA, 77010
Website
https://www.mrcglobal.com
MRC Global Inc distributes pipes, valves, fittings, and related products and services to the energy industry. Products are often used in the construction, maintenance, repair, and overhaul of equipment used in extreme operating conditions. In these conditions and other environments, MRC's valve products give the customer the ability to control the direction, velocity, and pressure of fluids and gases within transmission networks. In addition, other products can be used to regulate flow and on/off service. MRC's other products, which include pipe, steel fitting, and tubular goods, are used across all of the industries in which the company operates. Specialized services are delivered alongside this array of products to enhance the client relationship.
Executives
Shweta Kurvey-mishra officer: See Remarks 1301 MCKINNEY STREET, SUITE 2300, HOUSTON TX 77010
Anne Mcentee director 1301 MCKINNEY STREET, SUITE 2300, HOUSTON TX 77010
Malcolm O'neal officer: SVP - Human Resources 1301 MCKINNEY ST., SUITE 2300, HOUSTON TX 77010
Emily K. Shields officer: See Remarks 1301 MCKINNEY ST., SUITE 2300, HOUSTON TX 77010
Stephen B. Smith officer: See Remarks 1301 MCKINNEY ST., SUITE 2300, HOUSTON TX 77010
Ronald L Jadin director 100 GRAINGER PARKWAY, LAKE FOREST IL 60045
George John Damiris director 100 CRESCENT COURT, SUITE 1600, DALLAS TX 75201
Gillian Anderson officer: See Remarks 1301 MCKINNEY ST., SUITE 2300, HOUSTON TX 77010
Robert J. Saltiel director, officer: President and CEO 4 GREENWAY PLAZA, HOUSTON TX 77046
Rance C Long officer: SVP-Business Development 1301 MCKINNEY STREET, SUITE 2300, HOUSTON TX 77010
John P Mccarthy officer: SVP-Supply Chain 1301 MCKINNEY STREET, SUITE 2300, HOUSTON TX 77010
Cornell Capital Gp Ii Lp 10 percent owner C/O CORNELL CAPITAL LLC, 499 PARK AVENUE, 21ST FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Cornell Investment Partners Llc 10 percent owner C/O DAVIS POLK & WARDWELL LLP, ATTN: R.A DRUCKER, 450 LEXINGTON AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10017
Mario Investments Llc 10 percent owner C/O DAVIS POLK & WARDWELL LLP, ATTN: R.A DRUCKER, 450 LEXINGTON AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10017
Cornell Capital Special Situations Partners Ii Lp 10 percent owner C/O CORNELL CAPITAL LLC, 499 PARK AVENUE, 21ST FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022