Manuka (Manuka) Predictability Rank

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What is Manuka Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Manuka Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Manuka Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Manuka (Manuka) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Defensive » Consumer Packaged Goods » Manuka Inc (OTCPK:MNKA) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

3 Eliezer Vardinon Street, Petach Tikva, ISR, 4959507

Website

https://www.bmanuka.co.il

Manuka Inc is a beauty company that develops and distributes premium-quality skincare products, that are based on M?nuka honey and bee venom. Its skincare products are manufactured in Israel by its vendor, Chic with M?nuka honey ingredients. The company imports Manuka honey from its supplier in New Zealand, Waitemata Honey pursuant to the Supply Agreement. Currently, it operates only in Israel through the online platform. Its website and mobile applications currently offer six cosmetic skincare products: Face Serum with Manuka Honey and Bee Venom; Face Serum with enhanced Vitamin C; Day Cream; Night nourishing Cream; Eye Cream; and Face Cleanser Gel.

Executives

David Dana	officer: Chief Financial Officer	3 ELIEZER VARDINON ST., PETACH TIKVA L3 4959507
Shimon Citron	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer
Brian M Culley	officer: Chief Executive Officer	6725 MESA RIDGE ROAD, SUITE 100, SAN DIEGO CA 92121
Peter N. Payne	officer: Chief Executive Officer	C/O NEW YORK GLOBAL INNOVATIONS INC., 18 E. 16TH STREET, SUITE 307, NEW YORK NY 10003
Dana Wolf	officer: Chief Scientific Officer	18 EAST 16TH STREET, SUITE 307, NEW YORK NY 10003
Tonak Ltd.	10 percent owner	18 EAST 16TH STREET, SUITE 307, NEW YORK NY 10003
Israel Alfassi	director	18 EAST 16TH STREET, SUITE 307, NEW YORK NY 10003
Chanan Morris	officer: Chief Financial Officer	30 HAKTORET STREET, EFRAT L3 90435
Arias Roberto Alonso Jimenez	director	C/O NEW YORK GLOBAL INNOVATIONS INC., 18 EAST 16TH ST., SUITE 307, NEW YORK NY 10003
Tomer Assis	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O INKSURE TECHNOLOGIES INC., 18 EAST 16TH ST., SUITE 307, NEW YORK NY 10003
David W Sass	director, officer: Secretary	260 MADISON AVE 18TH FLR, NEW YORK NY 10016
David Avner	officer: CHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICER	1 HAMADA ST, REHOVOT L3 76703
Jonathan Bettsak	director	C/O INKSURE LTD 1 HAMADA ST., THE RABIN SCIENCE PARK, REHOVOT L3 76703
Tal Gilat	officer: President and CEO	C/O INKSURE, 1 HAMADA ST., REHOVOT L3 76703
Alon Raich	director	C/O ICTS INTERNATIONAL, N.V., BIESBOSCH 225, 1181 JC AMSTELVEEN P7 0000000000

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