MillerKnoll (MillerKnoll) Predictability Rank

View and export this data going back to 1990. Start your Free Trial

What is MillerKnoll Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

MillerKnoll Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

MillerKnoll Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of MillerKnoll's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

MillerKnoll (MillerKnoll) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Furnishings, Fixtures & Appliances » MillerKnoll Inc (NAS:MLKN) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

MHR:Germany

Address

855 East Main Avenue, P.O. Box 302, Zeeland, MI, USA, 49464

Website

https://www.millerknoll.com

MillerKnoll Inc, formerly Herman Miller Inc researches, designs, manufactures, sells, and distributes interior furnishings across the globe. The Company has three reportable segments: Americas Contract , International Contract & Specialty International & Specialty and Global Retail. The company's products are sold through a variety of sources, including owned and independent contract furniture dealers, direct customer sales, owned and independent retailers, direct-mail catalogs, and the company's online stores. The independent retailer division generates the majority of the firm's overall sales.

Executives

Jeffrey M Stutz	officer: TreasVPInvst Relatn	855 EAST MAIN, ZEELAND MI 49464
Mike C. Smith	director	STITCH FIX, INC., ONE MONTGOMERY STREET, SUITE 1500, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94104
Michael A Volkema	director
Michael R Smith	director	18 LOVETON CIRCLE, SPARKS MD 21152
Lisa A Kro	director	3700 WELLS FARGO CENTER, 90 SOUTH 7TH STREET, MINNEAPOLIS MN 55402
Megan Lyon	other: Chief Strategy Officer	855 EAST MAIN, ZEELAND MI 49464
Andi Owen	officer: President & CEO	4900 N. SCOTTSDALE ROAD, SUITE 2000, SCOTTSDALE AZ 85251
Richard Scott	other: Chief Mfg and Ops Officer	855 EAST MAIN, ZEELAND MI 49464
Bruce Benedict Watson	other: Executive Creative Director	855 EAST MAIN, ZEELAND MI 49464
Kartik Shethia	other: President - Intl Contract	855 EAST MAIN AVE, ZEELAND MI 49464
Jeffrey L. Kurburski	other: VP Information Tech	855 EAST MAIN, ZEELAND MI 49464
Christopher M Baldwin	other: Group President, MillerKnoll	C/O KNOLL INC, 1235 WATER STREET, EAST GREENVILLE PA 18041
Jennifer K. Nicol	other: Chief People Officer	855 EAST MAIN AVE, ZEELAND MI 49464
John P Michael	officer: President, N America Contract	855 EAST MAIN, ZEELAND MI 49464
Debbie F Propst	officer: President - HM Consumer	855 EAST MAIN, ZEELAND MI 49464