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MicroAlgo (MicroAlgo) Predictability Rank


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What is MicroAlgo Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

MicroAlgo Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

MicroAlgo Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of MicroAlgo's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

MicroAlgo (MicroAlgo) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Software » MicroAlgo Inc (NAS:MLGO) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
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Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
Taoyuan Street, Unit 507, Building C, Long Jing High & New Technology Jingu Pioneer Park, Nanshan District, Shenzhen, CHN, 518052
Website
MicroAlgo Inc is divided into two segments Central processing algorithm services & Intelligent chips and services. The majority is from the Central processing algorithm services. which refer to a range of computing algorithms, analytical algorithms, recommendation algorithms, & acceleration algorithms. The businesses engaged in internet advertisement, game development, intelligent chip design, finance, retail, & logistics depend on the ability to process & analyze data with optimized computing software & hardware capable of handling the data workload. Intelligent chips & services revenues include revenues generated from the resale of intelligent chips. All of the Company's net revenues were generated in the PRC, Hong Kong, & Singapore, out of which the majority is from the PRC.
Executives
Wimi Hologram Cloud Inc. 10 percent owner NO. 6 XIAOZHUANG, BEIJING F4 100005
Li He officer: CFO C2706, HEZHENGYI GARDEN, SUNGANG STREET, LUOHU DISTRICT SHENZHEN F4 518000
Shiwen Liu officer: COO 2007, DESIGN BUILDING, NO. 8 ZHENHUA ROAD, FUTIAN DISTRICT SHENZHEN F4 518028
Haixia Zhao director ROOM F, 3RD FLOOR, YINGXIE BUILDING, 1002 FUQIANG ROAD, FUTIAN DISTRICT, SHENZHEN F4 518033
Chengwei Yi officer: CTO ROOM 502, UNIT B, BUILDING 3, YIRAN TIANDI RESIDENCE, NANSHAN DISTRICT, SHENZHEN F4 518000
Wengang Kang director ROOM 1214, BUILDING 17, XINYUAN INTERNATIONAL CITY GARDEN, HUAQIAO TOWN, KUNSHAN F4 215332
Xinmin Su director, officer: CEO 1802 YUXUAN PAVILION, 4001 TAIBAI ROAD, LUOHU DISTRICT, SHENZHEN F4 518019
Plc Barclays 10 percent owner 1 CHURCHILL PLACE, CANARY WHARF, LONDON X0 E14 5HP
Liu Yanming director, officer: Chairman + CEO SUITE 906 TOWER W1 ORIENTAL SQUARE, BEIJING F4 100006
Cui Shan director SUITE 906 TOWER W1 ORIENTAL SQUARE, BEIJING F4 100006
Yu Chen director SUITE 906 TOWER W1 ORIENTAL SQUARE, BEIJING F4 100006
River Chi director, officer: Chief Financial Officer SUITE 906 TOWER W1 ORIENTAL SQUARE, BEIJING F4 100006
Guojian Chen director 477 MADISON AVENUE, 6TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022