What is Molekule Group Predictability Rank?
Not Rated
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Molekule Group Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Molekule Group (Molekule Group) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
10455 Riverside Drive, Palm Beach Gardens, FL, USA, 33410
Molekule Group Inc is an interior space air purification technology company with an immediate objective of initiating full-scale commercialization of its high-performance interior air sterilization and disinfection products for the eradication of coronavirus and other harmful airborne pathogens. The Company was established to develop technology-driven, medical-grade air purification solutions for hospitals and other healthcare settings. Its air hygiene product, Purgo, is an FD medical device that provides continuous air filtration, sanitization, and supplemental ventilation solutions with technology that can be applied in any indoor space including in hospitals, offices, and even in elevators.
Executives
| Ritankar Pal |
officer: Chief Operating Officer |
10455 RIVERSIDE DR., PALM BEACH GARDENS FL 33410 |
| Jonathan Harris |
officer: Chief Commercial Officer |
3000 CLEARVIEW WAY, SAN MATEO CA 94402 |
| Bradley A Feld |
director |
C/O FOUNDRY GROUP, 645 WALNUT ST., BOULDER CO 80302 |
| Ryan A Mcintyre |
10 percent owner |
|
| Seth Levine |
10 percent owner |
1050 WALNUT STREET, SUITE 210, BOULDER CO 80302 |
| Fg Next Gp, Llc |
10 percent owner |
1050 WALNUT STREET, SUITE 210, BOULDER CO 80302 |
| Foundry Group Next, L.p. |
10 percent owner |
C/O FOUNDRY GROUP, 1050 WALNUT STREET, SUITE 219, BOULDER CO 80302 |
| Ward Jr Stephen M |
director |
C/O CARPENTER TECHNOLOGY CORP, PO BOX 14662, READING PA 19612 |
| Timothy J Scannell |
director |
2825 AIRVIEW BOULEVARD, KALAMAZOO MI 49002 |
| Heather Floyd |
director |
1300 CORPORATE CENTER WAY, WELLINGTON FL 33414 |
| Thomas P Mccaffrey |
director |
1300 CORPORATE CENTER WAY, WELLINGTON FL 33414 |
| Lewis C Pell |
10 percent owner |
C/O VISION SCIENCES INC, 6 STRATHMORE RD, NATICK MA 01760 |
| Michael F Senft |
director |
1300 CORPORATE CENTER WAY, WELLINGTON FL 33414 |
| Jason Dibona |
officer: Chief Executive Officer |
10455 RIVERSIDE DRIVE, PALM BEACH GARDEN FL 33410 |
| David Helfet |
director |
10455 RIVERSIDE DRIVE, PALM BEACH GARDENS FL 33410 |
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