Markforged Holding (Markforged Holding) Predictability Rank

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What is Markforged Holding Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Markforged Holding Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Markforged Holding (Markforged Holding) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Hardware » Markforged Holding Corp (NYSE:MKFG) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

480 Pleasant Street, Watertown, MA, USA, 02472

Website

https://www.markforged.com

Markforged Holding Corp transforms manufacturing with 3D metal and continuous carbon fiber printers capable of producing parts tough enough for the factory floor. The Markforged Digital Forge brings the power and speed of agile software development to industrial manufacturing, combining hardware, software, and materials to eliminate the barriers between design and functional parts. The company's geographical segments include the Americas; Europe, the Middle East, Africa; and Asia-Pacific.

Executives

Aaron Vandevender	director	1 TOWER PLACE, SUITE 850, SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO CA 94080
Assaf Zipori	officer: Acting Chief Financial Officer	MARKFORGED HOLDING CORP, 60 TOWER ROAD, WALTHAM MA 02451
Shai Terem	director, officer: President and CEO	C/O MARKFORGED, INC., 480 PLEASANT STREET, WATERTOWN MA 02472
Mark Joseph Schwartz	officer: Chief Financial Officer	4104 24TH STREET #345, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94114
Gregory Mark	10 percent owner	C/O MARKFORGED, INC., 480 PLEASANT STREET, WATERTOWN MA 02472
David Benhaim	officer: Chief Technology Officer	C/O MARKFORGED, 480 PLEASANT STREET, WATERTWON MA 02472
Stephen Karp	officer: General Counsel	C/O MARKFORGED, INC., 480 PLEASANT STREET, WATERTOWN MA 02472
Carol Meyers	director	3 BATTERY WHARF, UNIT 3408, BOSTON MA 02109
Alan Masarek	director	C/O VONAGE HOLDINGS CORP., 23 MAIN STREET, HOLMDEL NJ 07733
Richard A Damore	10 percent owner	C/O NORTHBRIDGE VENTURE PARTNERS, 950 WINTER ST STE 4600, WALTHAM MA 02451
North Bridge Venture Partners 7, L.p.	10 percent owner	60 WILLIAM STREET, SUITE 350, WELLESLEY MA 02481
North Bridge Venture Management 7, L.p.	10 percent owner	60 WILLIAM STREET, SUITE 350, WELLESLEY MA 02481
Michael Medici	director	C/O MARKFORGED, INC., 480 PLEASANT STREET, WATERTOWN MA 02472
Matrix Ix Management Co. Llc	10 percent owner	101 MAIN STREET, 17TH FLOOR, CAMBRIDGE MA 02142
Antonio L. Rodriguez	director	MATRIX PARTNERS, 101 MAIN STREET, 17TH FLOOR, CAMBRIDGE MA 02142