Singing Machine Co (Singing Machine Co) Predictability Rank

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What is Singing Machine Co Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Singing Machine Co Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Singing Machine Co (Singing Machine Co) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Hardware » Singing Machine Co Inc (NAS:MICS) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

6301 NW 5th Way, Suite 2900, Fort Lauderdale, FL, USA, 33309

Website

https://www.singingmachine.com

Singing Machine Co Inc is engaged in the development, production, marketing and distribution of consumer karaoke audio equipment, toy products, accessories, music, and audio consumer electronic products. It contracts for the manufacturing of all its electronic equipment products with factories located in China. The company has also collaborated with a music content service provider that allows the company to offer karaoke downloads and streaming subscription services. This collaboration provides the company with a distribution platform for digital music sales and subscriptions and music sales to customers. Geographically, it derives a majority of revenue from North America and also has a presence in Europe; Asia, and Australia.

Executives

Jay B Foreman	director	6301 NW 5TH WAY,, SUITE 2900, FORT LAUDERDALE FL 33309
Stingray Group Inc.	10 percent owner	730 WELLINGTON STREET, MONTREAL A8 H3C 1T4
Ault Milton C Iii	10 percent owner	11411 SOUTHERN HIGHLANDS PARKWAY, SUITE 240, LAS VEGAS NV 89141
Bitnile Holdings, Inc.	10 percent owner	11411 SOUTHERN HIGHLANDS PARKWAY, SUITE 240, LAS VEGAS NV 89141
Henry Carl Nisser	director	100 PARK AVENUE, SUITE 1658A, NEW YORK NY 10017
James Michael Turner	director	1800 HICKORY RIDGE DRIVE, WAXHAW NC 28173
Kenneth S Cragun	director	3775 CHIPPEWA CIRCLE, CORONA CA 92881
Mathieu Peloquin	director	730 WELLINGTON STREET, MONTREAL A8 H3C 1T4
Eric Boyko	10 percent owner	730 WELLINGTON STREET, MONTREAL A8 H3C 1T4
Bernardo Melo	officer: VP Sales	6601 LYONS ROAD, BUILDING A 7, COCONUT CREEK FL 33073
Joseph Kling	director	5846 NW 24TH AVENUE (UNIT #203), BOCA RATON FL 33496
Lau Sak Hong Aka Philip Lau	director	SHING DAO INDUSTRIAL BUILDING SECURITIES, 232 ABERDEEN MAIN ROAD 5TH FLO K3 00000
Gary Kevin Atkinson	officer: Secretary	1266 S MILITARY TRAIL, APT 5314, DEERFIELD BEACH FL 33442
Carol Lau	director	THE SINGING MACHINE COMPANY INC, 6601 LYONS ROAD BUILDING A 7, COCONUT CREEK FL 33073
Anton Handal	officer: CEO	425 TYRONE STREET, EL CAJON CA 92020