Micron Solutions (Micron Solutions) Predictability Rank

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What is Micron Solutions Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Micron Solutions Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Micron Solutions (Micron Solutions) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Medical Devices & Instruments » Micron Solutions Inc (OTCPK:MICRD) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

25 Sawyer Passway, Fitchburg, MA, USA, 01420

Website

https://www.micronsolutionsinc.com

Micron Solutions Inc is a diversified contract manufacturing organization that produces engineered medical device components requiring precision machining and injection molding. It provides design, engineering, quality, and regulatory expertise across the three product lines, machining, thermoplastic injection molding, and sensors. It's engaged in the production and sale of silver chloride-coated and conductive resin sensors used as consumable component parts in the manufacture of integrated disposable electrophysiological sensors. It also provides other value-added services, including the design, manufacture, and rehabilitation of injection molding tools, pad printing, ultrasonic welding, stamping, laser marking, clean room molding, and others.

Executives

Steven D. Heinemann	10 percent owner	C/O GOOSE HILL CAPITAL, 546 FIFTH AVENUE, 14TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10036
Wayne M Coll	officer: CFO
Rodd Friedman	director, 10 percent owner	12 SOUTH MAIN STREET, SUITE 203, NORWALK CT 06854
Jason Russell Chambers	director	4355 COBB PKWY, SUITE J BOX 269, ATLANTA 2Q 30339
Robert A Mello	director	C/O IRIS INTERNATIONAL, INC., 9158 ETON AVENUE, CHATSWORTH CA 91311
William J. Laursen	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	13 PENINSULA ROAD, HARVARD MA 01451
Andrei Soran	director	28 LOTHROP STREET, NEWTON MA 02460
Bryan Ganz	director	C/O ARRHYTHMIA RESEARCH TECHNOLOGY, INC., 25 SAWYER PASSWAY, FITCHBURG MA 01420
Ref Securities & Co.	10 percent owner	12 SOUTH MAIN STREET, SUITE 203, NORWALK CT 06854
Marco Benedetti	director	9645 WEHRLE DRIVE, CLARENCE NY 14031
Salvatore Jr Emma	director, officer: PRESIDENT and CEO	20 LONGLEY ROAD, SHIRLEY MA 01464
Derek Thomas Welch	officer: Prin.Financial & Accounting	405 NEW WEST TOWNSEND ROAD, LUNENBURG MA 01462
Patrick L Muldoon	director	215 HUBBARDSTON ROAD, PRINCETON MA 01541
Michael S Gunter	director	104 CAMBRIDGE PLAZA DRIVE, WINSTON-SALEM NC 27104
Michael Francis Nolan	officer: Chief Operating Officer	25 SAWYER PASSWAY, FITCHBURG MA 01420