MeiraGTx Holdings (MeiraGTx Holdings) Predictability Rank

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What is MeiraGTx Holdings Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

MeiraGTx Holdings Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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MeiraGTx Holdings (MeiraGTx Holdings) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » MeiraGTx Holdings PLC (NAS:MGTX) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

328:Germany

Address

450 East 29th Street, 14th Floor, New York, NY, USA, 10016

Website

https://www.meiragtx.com

MeiraGTx Holdings PLC is a clinical-stage gene therapy company. It focuses on the eye, salivary gland, and central nervous system disorders. The company's pipeline products include AAV-CNGB3, AAV-CNGA3 and AAV-RPGR, and others. Geographically, it operates in the United States, the United Kingdom, and European Union.

Executives

Perceptive Life Sciences Master Fund Ltd	director, 10 percent owner	C/O PERCEPTIVE ADVISORS LLC, 51 ASTOR PLACE, 10TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10003
Johnson & Johnson Innovation - Jjdc, Inc.	10 percent owner	410 GEORGE STREET, NEW BRUNSWICK NJ 08901
Johnson & Johnson	10 percent owner	ONE JOHNSON & JOHNSON PLZ, NEW BRUNSWICK NJ 08933
Robert K Zeldin	officer: Chief Medical Officer	C/O ACCELERON PHARMA INC., 128 SIDNEY STREET, CAMBRIDGE MA 02139
Robert J Wollin	officer: General Counsel and Secretary	450 EAST 29TH STREET, 14TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10016
Debra Yu	director	C/O PERCEPTIVE ADVISORS, 51 ASTOR PLACE, 10TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10003
Alexandria Forbes	director, officer: President & CEO	C/O KADMON HOLDINGS, LLC, 450 E. 29TH STREET, NEW YORK NY 10016
Richard Giroux	officer: Chief Operating Officer	C/O MEIRAGTX - US, 430 EAST 29TH STREET, 10TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10016
Stuart Naylor	director, officer: Chief Dev. Officer	C/O MEIRAGTX - US, 430 EAST 29TH STREET, 10TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10016
Joel S Marcus	director	C/O ALEXANDRIA REAL ESTATE EQUITIES, INC, 26 NORTH EUCLID AVENUE, PASADENA CA 91101
Thomas E Shenk	director	C/O KADMON HOLDINGS, LLC, 450 E. 29TH STREET, NEW YORK NY 10016
Nicole Seligman	director	C/O VIACOM INC., 1515 BROADWAY, NEW YORK NY 10036
Perceptive Advisors Llc	director, 10 percent owner	51 ASTOR PLACE, 10TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10003
Joseph Edelman	10 percent owner	C/O PERCEPTIVE ADVISORS LLC, 51 ASTOR PLACE, 10TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10003
Ellen Hukkelhoven	director	C/O PERCEPTIVE ADVISORS LLC, 51 ASTOR PLACE, 10TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10003