What is MGT Capital Investments Predictability Rank?
1 (5)
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
MGT Capital Investments Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
MGT Capital Investments (MGT Capital Investments) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
150 Fayetteville Street, Suite 1110, Raleigh, NC, USA, 27601
MGT Capital Investments Inc is a U.S. based Bitcoin miner company that conducts cryptocurrency activities at a company-owned and managed Bitcoin mining facility in LaFayette, Georgia. Located adjacent to a utility substation, the several-acre property has access to about 20 megawatts (MW) of electrical power, half of which is presently utilized by the Company. Business activities are comprised of self-mining operations and leasing space to third parties.
Executives
| Stephen Schaeffer |
officer: Chief Operating Officer |
512 S. MANGUM STREET, SUITE 408, DURHAM NC 27701 |
| Robert Ladd |
director, 10 percent owner |
C/O LADDCAP VALUE ADVISORS LLC, 650 FIFTH AVENUE, SUITE 600, NEW YORK NY 10019 |
| Robert S Lowrey |
officer: CFO, Treasurer, Secretary |
512 S MAGNUM STREET, STE 408, DURHAM NC 27701 |
| Nolan K Bushnell |
director |
5443 BEETHOVEN ST, LOS ANGELES CA 90066 |
| Hugh Robert Holmes |
director |
500 MAMARONECK AVENUE, SUITE 204, HARRISON NY 10528 |
| Iroquois Master Fund Ltd. |
10 percent owner |
641 LEXINGTON AVENUE, 26TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022 |
| Joshua Silverman |
10 percent owner |
IROQUOIS CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC, 205 EAST 42ND ST - 20TH FL., NEW YORK NY 10017 |
| Iroquois Capital Management, Llc |
10 percent owner |
641 LEXINGTON AVENUE, 26TH FLOOR, NEW YORK, NY 10022 |
| Michael Onghai |
director |
122 WEST 26TH ST. 5TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10001 |
| J&s Gaming, Inc. |
10 percent owner |
12 MAY HILL LANE, DIX HILLS NY 11746 |
| Laddcap Value Partners Iii Llc |
other: Managing Member |
335 MADISON AVENUE, SUITE 1100, NEW YORK NY 10017 |
| Robert Paul Traversa |
officer: Chief Financial Officer |
C/O MGT CAPITAL INVESTMENTS, INC., 500 MAMARONECK AVENUE, SUITE 204, HARRISON NY 10528 |
| Neal Wyman |
director |
KENSINGTON CENTRE, 66 HAMMERSMITH ROAD, LONDON X0 W14 8UD |
| Peter Venton |
director |
KENSINGTON CENTRE, 66 HAMMERSMITH ROAD, LONDON X0 W14 8UD |
| Richard Wolfe Cohen |
director |
ONE NORTH BROADWAY, SUITE 509, WHITE PLAINS NY 10601 |
Quick Browse
Personalize
Premium Gurus 
Create New Portfolio
Portfolio Contest
MGTI has been successfully added to your