MediaCo Holding (MediaCo Holding) Predictability Rank

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What is MediaCo Holding Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

MediaCo Holding Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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MediaCo Holding (MediaCo Holding) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Communication Services » Media - Diversified » MediaCo Holding Inc (NAS:MDIA) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

3WX:Germany

Address

395 HUDSON STREET,, FLOOR 7, New York, NY, USA, 10014

Website

https://mediacoholding.com

MediaCo Holding Inc is a radio broadcasting media company operating in radio and digital advertising, premium programming and events. It has two radio stations, WQHT-FM and WBLS-FM, which serve the New York City metropolitan area. The company generates revenue from radio and outdoor advertising sales and events including sponsorships and ticket sales, licensing, and syndication.

Executives

Robert L. Greene	director	1300 PENNSYLVANIA AVENUE NW, 700, WASHINGTON DC 20004
Andrew P. Glaze	director	C/O NATIONAL CINEMEDIA, INC., 6300 S. SYRACUSE WAY, SUITE 300, CENTENNIAL CO 80111
Deborah A Mcdermott	director	C/O YOUNG BROADCASTING INC, 599 LEXINGTON AVE, NEW YORK NY 10022
Mary Beth Riggio	director	137 SOUTH PECK, APARTMENT D, BEVERLY HILLS CA 90212
Emmis Corp	director, 10 percent owner	ONE EMMIS PLAZA, 40 MONUMENT CIRCLE #700, INDIANAPOLIS IN 46204
Bradford A Tobin	officer: President, COO	C/O STANDARD DIVERSIFIED OPPORTUNITIES, 155 MINEOLA BLVD., MINEOLA NY 11501
Ann C Beemish	officer: CFO	ONE EMMIS PLAZA, 40 MONUMENT CIRCLE, SUITE 700, INDIANAPOLIS IN 46204
Rahsan Lindsay	officer: CEO	ONE EMMIS PLAZA, 40 MONUMENT CIRCLE, SUITE 700, INDIANAPOLIS IN 46204
Standard General L.p.	10 percent owner	767 FIFTH AVENUE, 12TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10153
Laura Anne Lee	director	267 1ST STREET, APT 1, BROOKLYN NY 11215
Ryan A Hornaday	officer: EVP, CFO & Treasurer	40 MONUMENT CIRCLE, SUITE 700, INDIANAPOLIS IN 46204
J. Scott Enright	director, officer: EVP, General Counsel & Sec	40 MONUMENT CIRCLE, SUITE 700, INDIANAPOLIS IN 46204
Jeffrey H Smulyan	director, officer: CEO
Patrick M Walsh	director, officer: President, COO	40 MONUMENT CIRCLE, SUITE 700, INDIANAPOLIS IN 46204
Francis Capital Management, Llc	10 percent owner	610 MAIN STREET, VENICE CA 90291