What is Spectral AI Predictability Rank?
Not Rated
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Spectral AI Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Spectral AI (Spectral AI) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
2515 McKinney Avenue, Suite 1000, Dallas, TX, USA, 75201
Spectral AI Inc is an AI company, focused on predictive medical diagnostics. Spectral is devoting substantially all of its efforts towards the research and development of its DeepView System, an internally developed MSI device that has designated FDA BDD status. Its DeepView System uses proprietary algorithms to distinguish between damaged and healthy human tissue invisible to the naked eye, providing Day One healing assessments in seconds. The Company's output is specifically engineered to allow the physician to make a more accurate, timely and informed decision regarding the treatment of the patient's wound.
Executives
| John Michael Dimaio |
10 percent owner |
6125 LUTHER LANE, DALLAS TX 75225 |
| Michael Patrick Murphy |
director |
767 FIFTH AVENUE, 34TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10153 |
| Els 1960 Family, L.p. |
10 percent owner |
2323 VICTORY AVE., SUITE. 700, DALLAS TX 75219 |
| Richard John Cotton |
director |
RUE DU VILLAGE 4, CHAMPERY V8 1874 |
| Mellish Martin C.b. |
director |
13 BERRILL FARMS LN, HANOVER NH 03755 |
| Jeffrey Edward Thatcher |
officer: Chief Scientist |
6659 ESCONDIDO ST, IRVING TX 75039 |
| Nils Windler |
officer: Chief Financial Officer |
8602 NAPA LANDING, SAN ANTONIO TX 78015 |
| Wensheng Fan |
director, officer: CHIEF EXECUTIVE OFFICER |
3320 SPRING MOUNTAIN DRIVE, PLANO TX 75025 |
| Vincent S. Capone |
officer: GENERAL COUNSEL |
1620 GRASSHOPPER LANE, LOWER GWYNEDD PA 19002 |
| Nikolaos Pagoulatos |
officer: CHIEF OPERATING OFFICER |
5122 IROQUOIS DR, FRISCO TX 75034 |
| Xiaojia Cynthia Cai |
director |
10 CELESTIAL WAY, NEWARK DE 19711 |
| Heather Bellini |
director |
767 FIFTH AVENUE, 34TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10153 |
| Edmonds Franklin S. Jr. |
director |
767 FIFTH AVENUE, 34TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10153 |
| Rosecliff Acquisition Sponsor I Llc |
director |
767 FIFTH AVENUE, 34TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10153 |
| Erich Spangenberg |
10 percent owner |
73 595 EL PASEO, SUITE 2204, PALM DESERT CA 92260 |
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