Monarch Casino & Resort (Monarch Casino & Resort) Predictability Rank

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What is Monarch Casino & Resort Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Monarch Casino & Resort Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Monarch Casino & Resort (Monarch Casino & Resort) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Travel & Leisure » Monarch Casino & Resort Inc (NAS:MCRI) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

MOI:Germany

Address

3800 South Virginia Street, Reno, NV, USA, 89502

Website

https://www.monarchcasino.com

Monarch Casino & Resort Inc is engaged in providing the latest gaming, dining, and hospitality amenities. It owns and operates the Atlantis Casino Resort Spa, a hotel/casino facility in Reno, Nevada, and the Monarch Black Hawk Casino in Black Hawk. The company generates the majority of its revenue from Casinos, followed by Food & Beverage and Hotel Operations.

Executives

John Farahi	director, 10 percent owner, officer: Co-Chairman and CEO	MONARCH CASINO & RESORT INC, 1175 MOANA LANE SUITE 200, RENO NV 89509
Bob Farahi	director, 10 percent owner, officer: Co-Chairman and President	MONARCH CASINO & RESORT INC, 3800 S. VIRGINIA STREET, RENO NV 89502
David-jacques Farahi	officer: Chief Operating Officer	3800 S. VIRGINIA STREET, RENO NV 89502
Edwin S. Koenig	officer: CAO	3800 S. VIRGINIA STREET, RENO NV 89502
Ben Farahi	10 percent owner	3652 SOUTH VIRGINIA ST., SUITE C7, RENO NV 89502
Craig F Sullivan	director
Richard L. Cooley	officer: Vice President of Finance	3800 S. VIRGINIA STREET, RENO NV 89502
Ronald Rowan	officer: Chief Financial Officer	3800 S. VIRGINIA STREET, EXECUTIVE OFFICES, RENO NV 89502
Paul Andrews	director	3800 S. VIRGINIA STREET, RENO NV 89502
Yvette Landau	director
Ronald R Zideck	director
Charles W Scharer	director	C/O GAMETECH INTERNATIONAL INC, 900 SANDHILL ROAD, RENO NV 89521