908 Devices (908 Devices) Predictability Rank

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What is 908 Devices Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

908 Devices Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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908 Devices (908 Devices) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Medical Devices & Instruments » 908 Devices Inc (NAS:MASS) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

645 Summer Street, Boston, MA, USA, 02210

Website

https://www.908devices.com

908 Devices Inc manufactures medical devices. It has developed an innovative suite of purpose-built handheld and desktop mass spectrometry, or Mass Spec, devices for the point-of-need. Mass Spec devices are used at the point-of-need to interrogate unknown and invisible materials and provide quick, actionable answers to directly address some of the most critical problems in life sciences research, bioprocessing, industrial biotech, forensics, and adjacent markets.

Executives

Griffith Joseph H. Iv	officer: Chief Financial Officer	68 ELM STREET, HOPKINTON MA 01748
Christopher D. Brown	officer: Chief Technology Officer	C/O 908 DEVICES INC., 645 SUMMER STREET, BOSTON MA 02210
Kevin J. Knopp	director, officer: President and CEO	C/O 908 DEVICES INC., 645 SUMMER STREET, BOSTON MA 02210
Michael S. Turner	officer: VP, General Counsel	C/O 908 DEVICES INC., 645 SUMMER STREET, BOSTON MA 02210
Maura Fitzpatrick	officer: VP, Product Management & Mktg	908 DEVICES INC., 645 SUMMER STREET, BOSTON MA 02210
Mark Spoto	director	C/O 908 DEVICES INC., 645 SUMMER STREET, BOSTON MA 02210
Michele Fournier	officer: Chief People Officer	908 DEVICES INC., 645 SUMMER STREET, BOSTON MA 02210
Trent A. Basarsky	officer: Vice President, Commercial	C/O PROTEINSIMPLE, 3040 OAKMEAD VILLAGE DRIVE, SANTA CLARA CA 95051
John Kenneweg	officer: Vice President, Government	C/O 908 DEVICES INC., 645 SUMMER STREET, BOSTON MA 02210
Anthony Hunt	director	41 SEYON STREET, BUILDING 1, SUITE 100, WALTHAM MA 02452
Nicolas Barthelemy	director	1750 BELLA LAGUNA CT, ENCINITAS CA 92024
Marcia Eisenberg	director	C/O 908 DEVICES INC., 645 SUMMER STREET, BOSTON MA 02210
Jeffrey P. George	director	C/O AMNEAL PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 400 CROSSING BOULEVARD, BRIDGEWATER NJ 08807
Fenel M Eloi	director	C/O INTERLEUKIN GENETICS INC, 135 BEAVER STREET, WALTHAM MA 02452
Keith Crandell	director, 10 percent owner	8755 W. HIGGINS ROAD, SUITE 1025, CHICAGO IL 60631