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Mid-America Apartment Communities (Mid-America Apartment Communities) Predictability Rank


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What is Mid-America Apartment Communities Predictability Rank?

2.5 (5)

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.


Mid-America Apartment Communities Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Mid-America Apartment Communities Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Mid-America Apartment Communities (Mid-America Apartment Communities) Business Description

Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
6815 Poplar Avenue, Suite 500, Germantown, TN, USA, 38138
Mid-America Apartment Communities Inc, or MAA, is a real estate investment trust engaged in the acquisition, operation, and development of multifamily apartment communities located in southeastern and southwestern United States. Company operates two reportable segments; Same Store includes communities that the Company has owned and have been stabilized for at least a full 12 months as of the first day of the calendar year and Non-Same Store and Other includes recently acquired communities, communities being developed or in lease-up, communities that have been disposed of or identified for disposition, communities that have experienced a significant casualty loss and stabilized communities that do not meet the requirements to be Same Store communities. Key revenue comes from the Same Store.
Executives
Bolton H Eric Jr director, officer: President and Chief Executive
Timothy Argo officer: EVP, Chief Strategy & Analysis 6815 POPLAR AVE, SUITE 500, GERMANTOWN TN 38138
Melanie Carpenter officer: EVP & CHRO 6815 POPLAR AVE, SUITE 500, GERMANTOWN TN 38138
Robert J. Delpriore officer: EVP, General Counsel 6584 POPLAR AVENUE, MEMPHIS TN 38138
William Reid Sanders director C/O TWO HARBORS INVESTMENT CORP., 1601 UTICA AVENUE SOUTH, SUITE 900, ST. LOUIS PARK MN 55416
Tamara D Fischer director 5200 DTC PARKWAY, SUITE 200, GREENWOOD VILLAGE CO 80111
John Case director 600 LA TERRAZA BOULEVARD, ESCONDIDO CA 92025
Deborah H Caplan director 700 UNIVERSE BLVD, JUNO BEACH FL 33408
Adrian Hill officer: EVP, Chief Investment Officer 6815 POPLAR AVE, SUITE 500, GERMANTOWN TN 38138
Campbell Albert M Iii officer: EVP-Director of Finance 6584 POPLAR AVE., STE. 300, MEMPHIS TN 38138
Monica Houle Mcgurk director C/O BUNGE LIMITED, 1391 TIMBERLAKE MANOR PARKWAY, CHESTERFIELD MO 63017
Grimes Thomas L Jr officer: EVP-Director of Property Mgm 6584 POPLAR AVE., STE. 300, MEMPHIS TN 38138
David P Stockert director 4401 NORTHSIDE PARKWAY, SUITE 800, ATLANTA GA 30327-3057
Green Edith Kelly director 3131 DEMOCRAT ROAD BLDG B206, MEMPHIS TN 38118
Russell R French director 9 NORTH PARKWAY SQUARE, 4200 NORTHSIDE PARKWAY, ATLANTA GA 30327