What is LightPath Technologies Predictability Rank?
1 (5)
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
LightPath Technologies Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
LightPath Technologies (LightPath Technologies) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
2603 Challenger Tech Court, Suite 100, Orlando, FL, USA, 32826
LightPath Technologies Inc is a manufacturer, distributor, and integrator of proprietary optical components and assemblies. It is also engaged in the research and development for optical solutions for the traditional optics markets and communications markets. The company's business based on the following product groups: precision molded optics, specialty products, and infrared products. It currently serves the following major markets, distribution and catalog, laser, industrial, instrumentation, telecommunications, and defense.
Executives
| Albert Miranda |
officer: Chief Financial Officer |
1102 DUNCAN CR., UNIT 203, PALM BEACH GARDENS FL 33418 |
| Shmuel Rubin |
director, officer: Chief Executive Officer |
12619 OXON ROAD, HERNDON VA 20171-1707 |
| Louis Leeburg |
director |
LIGHTPATH TECHNOLOGIES INC, 6820 ACEDEMY PKWY EAST NE, ALBUQUERQUE NM 87109 |
| Darcie Peck |
director |
2603 CHALLENGER TECH COURT, SUITE 100, ORLANDO FL 32826 |
| Steven E Creviston |
director |
|
| Retreage Donald O'connor Jr |
officer: CFO |
2603 CHALLENGER TECH CT., SUITE 100, ORLANDO FL 32826 |
| Brueck Steven R J |
director |
2603 CHALLENGER TECH CT., SUITE 100, ., ORLANDO FL 32826 |
| Robert Ripp |
director |
920 ORCHID POINT WAY, VERO BEACH FL 32963 |
| Gaynor Joseph J Jr |
officer: VICE PRESIDENT |
|
| Joseph Menaker |
director |
2603 CHALLENGER TECH CT., SUITE 100, ORLANDO FL 32826 |
| Alan Symmons |
officer: VP Engineering |
2603 CHALLENGER TECH CT, SUITE 100, ORLANDO FL 32826 |
| Dorothy M Cipolla |
officer: CFO & Secretary |
6848 STAPOINT CT, WINTER PARK FL 32792 |
| Sohail A Khan |
director |
1110 AMERICAN PARKWAY NE, ALLENTOWN PA 18109 |
| Craig T Dunham |
director |
DYNASIL CORPORATION, 385 COOPER ROAD, WEST BERLIN NJ 08091 |
| Xudong Zhu |
director, 10 percent owner |
13 BUILDING, NO. 439, CHUNXIAO RD., ZHANGJIANG HIGH-TECH PARK, PUDONG, SHANGHAI F4 201203 |
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