Local Bounti (Local Bounti) Predictability Rank

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What is Local Bounti Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Local Bounti Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Local Bounti (Local Bounti) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Defensive » Consumer Packaged Goods » Local Bounti Corp (NYSE:LOCL) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

400 W. Main Street, Hamilton, MT, USA, 59840

Website

https://www.localbounti.com

Local Bounti Corp is a controlled environment agriculture company. Its business model is based on building local facilities, operated by local teams, to deliver fresh and quality produce to local communities while maintaining a limited carbon footprint. Using proprietary technology to grow leafy greens and herbs in smart greenhouses with a cultivation process that uses less water and land than conventional agriculture, free from herbicides or pesticides, it delivers products that have a longer shelf life, and are good in taste.

Executives

Kathleen Valiasek	officer: Chief Financial Officer	AMYRIS, INC., 5850 HOLLIS STREET SUITE 100, EMERYVILLE CA 94608
B. David Vosburg	officer: Chief Innovation Officer	C/O LOCAL BOUNTI CORPORATION, 490 FOLEY LANE, HAMILTON MT 59840
Travis M. Joyner	director, officer: Co-Chief Executive Officer	C/O LOCAL BOUNTI CORPORATION, 490 FOLEY LANE, HAMILTON MT 59840
Anna M. Fabrega	officer: Chief Executive Officer	C/O AMERICAN PUBLIC EDUCATION, INC., 111 WEST CONGRESS STREET, CHARLES TOWN WV 25414
Edward C Forst	director	85 BROAD STREET, NEW YORK NY 10004
Matthew Nordby	director	C/O LOCAL BOUNTI CORPORATION, 490 FOLEY LANE, HAMILTON MT 59840
Craig M. Hurlbert	director, officer: Co-Chief Executive Officer	C/O LOCAL BOUNTI CORPORATION, 490 FOLEY LANE, HAMILTON MT 59840
Mark Joseph Nelson	director	LOCAL BOUNTI CORPORATION, 220 W MAIN STREET, HAMILTON MT 59840
Jennifer Carr-smith	director	28 LIBERTY STREET, NEW YORK NY 10005
Brian C. Cook	officer: President	C/O LOCAL BOUNTI CORPORATION, 490 FOLEY LANE, HAMILTON MT 59840
Margaret Mccandless	officer: General Counsel & Secretary	C/O ROYAL GOLD, 1144 15TH STREET, SUITE 2500, DENVER CO 80202
Charles R. Schwab	10 percent owner	PO BOX 2226, PALM BEACH FL 33480
Mark Alan Mckinney	officer: Chief Operating Officer	C/O LOCAL BOUNTI CORPORATION, 490 FOLEY LANE, HAMILTON MT 59840
Gary Hilberg	officer: Chief Sustainability Officer	C/O LOCAL BOUNTI CORPORATION, 490 FOLEY LANE, HAMILTON MT 59840
Pamela Brewster	director	C/O LOCAL BOUNTI CORPORATION, 490 FOLEY LANE, HAMILTON MT 59840