Lightstone Value Plus REIT I (Lightstone Value Plus REIT I) Predictability Rank

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What is Lightstone Value Plus REIT I Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Lightstone Value Plus REIT I Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Lightstone Value Plus REIT I Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Lightstone Value Plus REIT I (Lightstone Value Plus REIT I) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Real Estate » REITs » Lightstone Value Plus REIT I Inc (GREY:LHTV) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

IHT TMPHD SOHO CDOR AHP AHT AHOTF CLDT HT FCH CHSP FCPT MGP INN XHR DRH PEB RLJ RHP LHO

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

1985 Cedar Bridge Avenue, Suite 1, Lakewood, NJ, USA, 08701

Website

https://www.lightstonegroup.com

Lightstone Value Plus REIT I Inc operates as a real estate investment trust company. Principally, it engages in the business of investing in and owning commercial and residential real estate properties located in the United States. Additionally, its commercial holdings consist of retail primarily multi-tenant shopping centers, lodging, industrial and residential properties comprised of multi-family complexes. The company generates revenue through the provision of rental, tenant, and other services.

Executives

Howard E Friedman	director	6201 GREEN MEADOW WAY, BALTIMORE MD 21209
Owen Peyton H Jr	officer: President	C/O LIGHTSTONE GROUP, 326 THIRD STREET, LAKEWOOD NJ 08701
Donna Brandin	officer: CFO and Treasurer	C/O EQUITY RESIDENTIAL, TWO NORTH RIVERSIDE PLAZA, SUITE 400, CHICAGO IL 60606
George R Whittemore	director	P.O. BOX 330, MIDLOTHIAN VA 23113
Michael M Schurer	officer: CFO, Treasurer	C/O THE LIGHTSTONE GROUP, LLC, 326 3RD STREET, LAKEWOOD NJ 08701
Stephen H Hamrick	officer: VP, Investor Relations	139 VAN BOLEN WAY, MAHWAH NJ 07430
David Lichtenstein	director, officer: CEO, President, Chairmn Bd Dr	C/O THE LIGHTSTONE GROUP, LLC, 1985 CEDAR BRIDGE AVENUE, SUITE 1, LAKEWOOD NJ 08701
Edwin J Glickman	director
Vinck Bruno De	director, officer: COO, Senior VP, Secretary	C/O THE LIGHTSTONE GROUP, LLC, 1985 CEDAR BRIDGE AVENUE, SUITE 1, LAKEWOOD NJ 08701
Shawn R Tominus	director	C/O METRO MANAGEMENT, P.O. BOX 425, OLD BRIDGE NJ 08857
Joseph E Teichman	officer: General Counsel	C/O LIGHTSTONE VALUE PLUS REIT, INC., 326 THIRD STREET, LAKEWOOD NJ 08701

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