Lucira Health (Lucira Health) Predictability Rank

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What is Lucira Health Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Lucira Health Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Lucira Health (Lucira Health) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Medical Devices & Instruments » Lucira Health Inc (OTCPK:LHDXQ) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

1412 62nd Street, Emeryville, CA, USA, 94608

Website

https://www.lucirahealth.com

Lucira Health Inc is a medical technology company focused on the development and commercialization of transformative and innovative infectious disease test kits. It has developed a testing platform that produces high-complexity-laboratory-accurate molecular testing in a single-use and user-friendly test kit that is powered by two AA batteries and fit in the palm of a hand. The company's initial focus is within respiratory diseases, and initially for COVID-19 and influenza Types A and B indications.

Executives

Anthony Joseph Allen	officer: Chief Operations Officer	1412 62ND STREET, EMERYVILLE CA 94608
Epq Llc, Lcovd Safe Ps	other: Less than 10% owner	9650 GATEWAY DRIVE, SUITE 200, RENO NV 89521
Chad Boeding	other: CEO of 10% owner	ONE LOMBARD STREET, SUITE 200, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94111
Epiq Capital Group, Llc	10 percent owner	ONE LOMBARD STREET, SUITE 200, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94111
Epq Llc, Lcovd Ps	10 percent owner	9650 GATEWAY DRIVE, SUITE 200, RENO NV 89521
Epq Llc, Lflu Ps	other: Less than 10% owner	9650 GATEWAY DRIVE, SUITE 200, RENO NV 89521
Epq Llc, Ltest Ps	other: Less than 10% Owner	9650 GATEWAY DRIVE, SUITE 200, RENO NV 89521
Richard Clavano Narido	officer: Interim CFO	12 HANSEN CT, MORAGA CA 94556
Ghazi Kashmolah	officer: Ex. VP &Chief Quality Officer	1412 62ND STREET, EMERYVILLE CA 94608
Kevin Walter Collins	officer: Chief Revenue Officer	C/O LUCIRA HEALTH, INC., 1412 62ND STREET, EMERYVILLE CA 94608
Dan George	officer: CFO and Treasurer	1412 62ND STREET, EMERYVILLE CA 94608
Erik T. Engelson	director, officer: President and Chief Executive	1412 62ND STREET, EMERYVILLE CA 94608
Debkishore Mitra	director, officer: Chief Technology Officer	1412 62ND STREET, EMERYVILLE CA 94608
Tamanna Prashar	officer: Vice President	1412 62ND STREET, EMERYVILLE CA 94608
Alison Mccauley	director	C/O LUCIRA HEALTH, INC., 1412 62ND STREET, EMERYVILLE CA 94608